XRP is currently trading around $2.43, struggling to break past a stubborn resistance at $2.60. Despite this price hesitation, the underlying on-chain data tells a far more optimistic story—network activity has surged by over 400% since early March, and whale accumulation continues to accelerate. Meanwhile, derivatives markets paint a more cautious picture, with negative funding rates signaling investor skepticism. This divergence between strong fundamentals and tepid market sentiment creates a compelling narrative for what’s next for XRP.
With the SEC officially dropping its appeal against Ripple, legal overhangs have significantly eased, boosting investor confidence. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has even suggested that an XRP ETF could launch in the second half of 2025. But can bullish on-chain momentum overcome bearish short-term technicals? Let’s break it down.
Whale Accumulation Fuels Long-Term Confidence
One of the most telling signs of market strength lies in whale behavior—and XRP whales are clearly loading up.
Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have increased their holdings by 10% in just two months, now collectively owning approximately 5.81 billion XRP, valued at around $14 billion. This sustained accumulation suggests strong conviction among large investors who believe in XRP’s long-term potential.
While the largest holders (10M–100M XRP) show mixed activity—some adding, others trimming—there’s no widespread sell-off. The absence of mass distribution from top-tier wallets indicates that even the biggest players aren’t panicking at current price levels.
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Network Activity Surges as User Engagement Soars
Beyond whale activity, on-chain metrics reveal explosive growth in real-world usage.
Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have quadrupled since February, signaling a significant uptick in user engagement. This kind of organic growth is rare and often precedes major price rallies in digital assets. It reflects increased utility—whether through payments, token swaps, or decentralized applications leveraging XRPL’s fast and low-cost infrastructure.
Additionally, the Dormant Circulation metric shows minimal movement among long-term holders, even during recent price spikes. This “HODL mode” behavior reinforces market stability and reduces sell-side pressure, creating a solid foundation for future upside.
Legal Clarity Boosts Investor Sentiment
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently dropped its appeal in the long-running case against Ripple Labs. This decision removes a critical legal uncertainty that has weighed on XRP for years.
Market reaction was immediate: XRP saw a 14% midweek rally following the news. More importantly, the ruling sets a precedent for how digital assets may be regulated in the U.S., potentially paving the way for broader institutional adoption.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse didn’t miss the moment—he appeared on Bloomberg to announce his confidence in an upcoming XRP ETF. “I have immense confidence in the ETF,” he stated, projecting a possible launch in the second half of 2025.
Although no XRP ETF has been approved yet, several major firms—including Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton—have already filed applications. The SEC has paused decisions on these filings, but growing momentum and potential inclusion of XRP in a U.S. digital asset reserve could accelerate approvals.
Derivatives Data Shows Caution Amid Bullish Fundamentals
Despite strong on-chain and legal developments, derivatives markets are flashing caution signs.
According to Coinglass data, funding rates for XRP futures are negative, indicating that traders are either shorting the asset or avoiding leveraged long positions. This bearish sentiment in the futures market may explain why XRP failed to sustain its recent rally past $2.60.
In fact, over **$13.86 million in long positions were liquidated** within 24 hours after the price rejection at $2.60—a classic sign of a market shakeout. Traders who entered on momentum got flushed out, leaving room for a potential reset.
This contrast between bullish on-chain activity and bearish derivatives signals highlights a key tension: while fundamentals suggest strength, trader psychology remains fragile.
Technical Outlook: Can XRP Break $2.60?
From a technical standpoint, XRP is at a critical juncture.
The price is currently testing the upper boundary of a descending channel on the daily chart. A successful bounce could open the door for another attempt at $2.60. A breakout above that level would likely trigger renewed buying interest, with targets at **$2.78, then $2.95**, and ultimately **$3.40**—a level not seen since 2018.
However, momentum indicators are showing weakness. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are approaching bearish crossovers. If XRP fails to hold support and closes below the descending channel, a drop toward $1.96 becomes increasingly likely.
For bulls to regain control, two things must happen:
- Sustained volume-backed breakout above $2.60.
- Improvement in funding rates to reflect renewed trader confidence.
Until then, expect volatility and consolidation.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is XRP rising despite mixed market signals?
A: XRP’s rise is primarily driven by improved fundamentals—legal clarity from the SEC ruling, surging network usage, and consistent whale accumulation. These factors build long-term value even when short-term trader sentiment is cautious.
Q: What does the SEC dropping the case mean for XRP investors?
A: It removes a major regulatory overhang, increases legitimacy, and opens doors for institutional investment vehicles like ETFs. It also strengthens the argument that XRP is not a security, which benefits its global tradability.
Q: Is an XRP ETF likely in 2025?
A: While not guaranteed, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has expressed strong confidence in a 2025 launch. With multiple applications already filed and regulatory clarity improving, the odds are better now than ever before.
Q: What happens if XRP breaks $2.60?
A: A confirmed breakout could trigger algorithmic buying and attract new capital. Key resistance levels lie at $2.78, $2.95, and $3.40—the latter being a psychological and historical milestone.
Q: Are negative funding rates a bad sign for XRP?
A: They suggest short-term bearish sentiment in leveraged markets, but they don’t override strong on-chain fundamentals. In some cases, prolonged negative funding can set up contrarian buying opportunities.
Final Thoughts: Building Momentum Behind the Scenes
XRP stands at a pivotal moment. On one side: robust on-chain growth, whale accumulation, legal victories, and growing ETF speculation—all pointing toward long-term strength.
On the other: hesitant traders, negative funding rates, and technical resistance capping near-term gains.
The clash between these forces is normal during transitional phases in crypto markets. What matters most is directionality—and right now, the foundational pieces are being laid for a potential major move.
Whether it's institutional adoption via an ETF or global payment networks expanding on XRPL, the use case for XRP is strengthening beyond speculation.
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While short-term price action may remain choppy, investors focused on fundamentals have reason to stay optimistic. If network momentum holds and regulatory tailwinds continue, XRP could be positioning itself for a breakout that redefines its market position in 2025 and beyond.
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