The cryptocurrency market remains on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and Ripple’s XRP is no exception. Currently trading around $2.20—down nearly 1.5% at the time of writing—XRP faces mounting downward pressure as key on-chain metrics signal weakening momentum. Despite a brief rebound attempt, the price has stalled below the critical $2.24 resistance zone, reflecting strong supply presence and growing investor caution.
Recent data reveals a dramatic decline in network activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), with active addresses plunging by 84% in under three days to just 100,000. This sudden drop raises concerns about declining user engagement and reduced demand for XRP as a cross-border transfer asset. Combined with bearish trends in derivatives markets, these signals point to a potential reversal of the prior bullish momentum.
👉 Discover how real-time market analytics can help you stay ahead of XRP price movements.
Declining Network Activity Undermines XRP Momentum
While geopolitical uncertainty contributes to broader market hesitation, the primary factor weighing on XRP's price action appears to be internal—specifically, a sharp contraction in XRPL network activity.
According to analytics platform Santiment, active addresses on the XRP Ledger surged to 609,000 within a 24-hour window last Saturday before collapsing to just 100,000 by Tuesday. Active addresses—a metric that tracks wallets sending or receiving XRP—serve as a vital indicator of real-world usage and user interest.
This rapid decline suggests waning participation in the ecosystem, potentially linked to fewer institutional settlements or reduced retail transaction volume. As demand weakens, upward price pressure diminishes, making it harder for XRP to sustain rallies or break through resistance levels.
Historically, sustained low activity correlates with sideways or bearish price behavior. If current trends continue and mirror the low-activity phases seen between April and June, XRP could struggle to maintain even modest gains—let alone advance toward key targets above $3.00.
Futures Market Reflects Waning Investor Confidence
Beyond on-chain data, sentiment in the derivatives market further reinforces bearish undertones.
XRP futures open interest (OI)—the total value of unsettled contracts—has slightly increased to $4 billion, per CoinGlass. However, this uptick comes against a backdrop of a broader downward trend since mid-May, when OI peaked at $5.52 billion. The overall decline suggests diminishing leverage and fading speculative interest.
Moreover, recent liquidations paint a troubling picture: over the past 24 hours, $4.21 million in long positions were wiped out, compared to only $739,000 in short liquidations. This imbalance indicates that bullish bets are being aggressively targeted, amplifying downside volatility.
Interestingly, derivatives trading volume has spiked over 200%, reaching $9.8 billion. This surge likely reflects traders adjusting positions ahead of major macroeconomic events—particularly the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting—rather than renewed confidence in XRP’s fundamentals.
👉 Access advanced trading tools to monitor liquidation zones and manage risk effectively.
Key Support Levels in Focus Amid Fed Uncertainty
Market attention this week centers on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. Analysts are closely watching for updates to the central bank’s “dot plot,” which may offer clues about future interest rate trajectories.
As K33 Research notes:
"While recent inflation data and geopolitical conflicts may encourage a dovish stance from the Fed, potential fiscal expansion through multi-trillion-dollar budget legislation could push policymakers toward a more hawkish approach."
This uncertainty is contributing to subdued price action across digital assets, including XRP. Traders remain cautious, avoiding large directional bets until clearer macro signals emerge.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Trend Channel Holds
From a technical perspective, XRP continues to trade within a descending channel that began after its May high of $2.65. A failed breakout attempt on Monday near the upper trendline resistance underscores persistent selling pressure around the $2.24 zone.
This level coincides with a confluence of resistance formed by the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), reinforcing its significance. A decisive close above this zone would be required to shift market structure and open the path toward retesting $2.65 and eventually challenging $3.00.
On the downside, the 200-day EMA at $2.09 serves as immediate support and was tested last Friday. Further down, the psychological $2.00 level represents another critical defense line. A breakdown below both could expose the April low of $1.61—the level hit during tariff-related sell-offs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a descending trend since mid-May, currently hovering above oversold territory but still signaling bearish momentum. Should the RSI dip into oversold conditions without price stabilization, it may confirm further downside pressure from sellers.
Core Keywords:
- XRP price prediction
- XRP Ledger active addresses
- XRP futures open interest
- XRP technical analysis
- Ripple network activity
- XRP support and resistance
- XRP market sentiment
- XRPL usage decline
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What causes XRP price movements?
A: XRP price is influenced by a mix of macroeconomic factors (like Fed policy), market sentiment, on-chain activity (such as active addresses), derivatives data (open interest and liquidations), and adoption by financial institutions via RippleNet.
Q: Why are active addresses important for XRP?
A: Active addresses reflect real usage of the XRPLedger. A drop suggests fewer transactions and lower demand, which can negatively impact price momentum and investor confidence.
Q: What does declining open interest mean for XRP?
A: Falling open interest typically indicates reduced leverage and speculative activity. Even if prices hold steady, shrinking OI often precedes consolidation or breakdowns due to lack of market conviction.
Q: Can XRP recover if active addresses rebound?
A: Yes. Sustained growth in active addresses would signal renewed network utility and demand—key catalysts for bullish reversals, especially if accompanied by rising open interest and positive macro conditions.
Q: What is the significance of the $2.24 resistance level?
A: The $2.24 zone aligns with the 50-day and 100-day EMAs and marks a supply-heavy area where sellers have repeatedly stepped in. Breaking above it could trigger short squeezes and attract new buyers.
Q: How does geopolitics affect XRP?
A: Global tensions increase risk aversion, leading investors to de-risk portfolios by selling volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. This broad effect impacts even fundamentally sound projects like XRP.
👉 Stay updated with live charts and expert insights to anticipate XRP breakout opportunities.
In summary, while XRP shows resilience near $2.09 support, bearish signals—from collapsing active addresses to weak derivatives trends—suggest limited upside potential in the near term. Until network activity recovers and macro risks subside, traders should remain cautious and monitor key technical levels closely for signs of reversal or continuation.