Hedera’s HBAR token is drawing significant attention from technical analysts as it mirrors price patterns and momentum signals last seen during its pivotal 2021 market cycle. According to Rekt Capital, a well-known crypto analyst, HBAR is retracing into a historically critical support zone after displaying signs of being heavily overbought. This development could set the stage for a potential springboard move toward the $0.20 mark—if key support levels hold firm.
Historical Parallels: HBAR’s 2021 Blueprint Repeats in 2025
Rekt Capital’s analysis focuses on the weekly chart structure of HBAR, which shows striking similarities to its behavior in 2021. During that period, the asset experienced a strong rally followed by a sharp correction into a well-defined support region before resuming upward momentum. Today, HBAR appears to be replaying that script.
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The current price action has pulled back into an orange-highlighted zone on Rekt Capital’s chart—representing the $0.16 to $0.22 range. This area has historically acted as a reversal point, where selling pressure tends to subside and buying interest re-emerges. In previous cycles, this zone marked the bottom before substantial rallies began.
A crucial detail lies in what Rekt Capital refers to as the “local red area”—a short-term support level that briefly broke last week but is now being retested. For bullish momentum to resume, HBAR must close the week above this level. A confirmed weekly close above this threshold would validate that support is intact and could trigger renewed buying pressure.
Additionally, HBAR recently broke out of a pennant-like formation—a bullish continuation pattern characterized by converging trendlines and declining volatility. The breakout above the downward-sloping resistance line adds credibility to the potential for an upward move, especially if supported by strong volume and sustained holding of key levels.
The next major resistance lies in the upper red boxed area on the chart—an area that, in 2021, saw temporary突破 before a deeper retracement. If history rhymes, HBAR may attempt to challenge this zone again in the coming weeks, provided current support holds.
RSI Confirms Momentum Shift: Is a Bullish Reversal Imminent?
Technical indicators are increasingly aligning with the narrative of a potential reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum oscillator, is showing an almost identical trajectory to what was observed in mid-2021.
In early January 2025, HBAR’s RSI reached levels described by Rekt Capital as “tremendously overbought,” marked by the orange box on the chart. Following that peak, the RSI dropped sharply to around 46—a level that previously acted as a reversal zone during the last market cycle.
“The RSI has dropped from tremendously Overbought (orange box) right into the blue 46 RSI level which back in mid-2021 was a reversal zone, especially confirmed after breaching the multi-month RSI Downtrend,” Rekt Capital noted.
This confluence is significant because it suggests that momentum is cooling off after an overextended run, setting up conditions for a potential turnaround. The RSI is now approaching a long-term downtrend resistance line. A decisive break above this line would serve as technical confirmation that bearish pressure is waning and bullish momentum is regaining control.
For a full bullish reversal to be confirmed, two conditions must align:
- Price must reclaim and hold above the local red support area.
- RSI must break and sustain above the green-labeled downtrend resistance.
When price and momentum indicators converge in this way, the probability of a sustained move higher increases significantly.
Broader Analyst Sentiment: From Cautious to Highly Bullish
While Rekt Capital maintains a data-driven, historically grounded perspective, other market observers are expressing more aggressive outlooks for HBAR.
Analyst Froggy, known for timely technical calls, views the current setup as highly constructive. He points out that buying interest is reappearing precisely at prior support levels—now acting as dynamic resistance. This shift often signals accumulation by institutional or whale investors preparing for the next leg up.
Even more bullish is Gilmore Estates, who applies Elliott Wave theory to forecast dramatic upside potential. According to this framework, HBAR has completed its fourth corrective wave and has bounced from key support—suggesting that Wave (5), typically the strongest and most extended phase of an impulse move, is now underway.
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“We’ve completed the (4) wave retracement, bounced off key support, and the chart is screaming one thing: Wave (5) is in play,” Gilmore Estates stated. Under this scenario, HBAR could see gains exceeding 600%, with a projected target of $1.23.
Although these forecasts vary in tone—from cautious optimism to outright exuberance—all analysts agree on one central point: the current price zone is pivotal. Whether HBAR uses this area as a launchpad or breaks down will determine its trajectory over the next several months.
Key Takeaways for Traders and Investors
HBAR’s current technical posture suggests it stands at a crossroads. On one hand, strong historical parallels and improving momentum indicators support a case for recovery toward $0.20 and beyond. On the other hand, failure to hold support could lead to further downside, echoing past breakdowns.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the key support level for HBAR right now?
A: The critical support lies in the “local red area” around $0.16–$0.18. A weekly close above this zone is required to confirm bullish continuation.
Q: Is HBAR likely to reach $0.20 soon?
A: Yes—if current support holds and momentum indicators like RSI break higher, a move toward $0.20 becomes increasingly probable within weeks.
Q: What does the RSI indicate about HBAR’s future direction?
A: The RSI has dropped from overbought levels into a historical reversal zone (~46). A break above its downtrend line would confirm strengthening bullish momentum.
Q: How reliable are comparisons to HBAR’s 2021 price action?
A: While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, technical patterns often repeat due to recurring market psychology—making such comparisons valuable context.
Q: What is the highest price target mentioned for HBAR?
A: Analyst Gilmore Estates projects a target of $1.23 based on Elliott Wave theory, implying over 600% upside from current levels.
Q: Should I buy HBAR now based on technical analysis?
A: Technicals suggest a high-reward setup if support holds. However, always conduct personal research and consider risk management before investing.
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