The question on every investor’s mind: Where are we in the crypto cycle?
After analyzing historical trends, market behavior, and on-chain data, the evidence suggests we’re in the fourth or fifth inning of a bull market—not the final stretch. That means we’re roughly halfway through, with the most explosive gains still ahead.
And here’s the exciting part: about 80% of total profits in a bull cycle are made in the last 20% of the run-up. We’re entering the phase where optimism turns to euphoria, retail investors flood back in, and prices start to look “silly”—in the best possible way.
Let’s break down what this means and how you can position yourself for what’s coming.
The 4-Year Crypto Market Cycle: What History Tells Us
Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have followed a remarkably consistent 4-year cycle since inception.
Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a halving event, cutting miner rewards in half and reducing new supply entering the market. This supply shock historically triggers a bull market, but not immediately.
Here’s how the pattern typically unfolds:
- 12–18 months before the halving: Prices bottom out.
- Halving event: Prices begin to rally.
- 6–12 months post-halving: Momentum builds, institutional interest grows.
- 12–18 months after halving: Full-blown bull market, often reaching new all-time highs.
Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred on April 19, 2024, aligning perfectly with this timeline. The price bottomed in late 2022—about 17 months prior—and has since surged over 300% from those lows.
👉 Discover how market cycles create wealth—and how to ride the next wave.
When we compare this current cycle to previous ones using on-chain data from Glassnode, the similarity is striking. The trajectory mirrors the 2016 and 2020 cycles, suggesting we’re on track for a powerful continuation.
This isn’t random speculation—it’s a repeatable pattern driven by supply scarcity, investor psychology, and increasing adoption.
Signs We’re Entering the “Euphoria” Phase
One of the strongest signals that a bull market is accelerating? Bitcoin surpassing all-time highs.
Historically, once BTC breaks past previous peaks, it unlocks a psychological shift:
- Mainstream media reignites coverage.
- Skeptics go quiet—after all, “scams” don’t make new highs.
- A wave of new investors (often called “tourists”) rush in, fearing they’ve missed out.
This phenomenon acts like a “bat signal” for crypto, signaling that the market is back—and bigger than ever.
But there’s another dynamic at play: Bitcoin is becoming a Veblen good.
Named after economist Thorstein Veblen, Veblen goods increase in desirability as their price rises. Think luxury brands like Louis Vuitton or Rolex—people want them because they’re expensive.
Crypto behaves similarly. More people are interested in buying Bitcoin at $70,000** than they were at **$16,000. High prices attract attention, media narratives shift from skepticism to FOMO (fear of missing out), and demand snowballs.
We’re seeing early signs of this shift now—more exchanges reporting record sign-ups, increased Google search volume for “buy Bitcoin,” and growing chatter on social platforms.
How High Could Bitcoin Go This Cycle?
In late 2023, when Bitcoin traded around $27,000**, I projected a target of **$150,000 by the end of this cycle.
Today? I stand by that number—but I may have been too conservative.
Why? Because I underestimated the impact of Bitcoin ETFs.
The Game-Changer: Bitcoin ETFs
For years, Wall Street investors avoided crypto due to custody concerns, volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. That changed in early 2024 with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
Now, giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck offer regulated ETFs that allow everyday investors to buy Bitcoin exposure directly through their brokerage or retirement accounts.
Consider this:
- GLD, the gold-backed ETF, took three years to reach $10 billion in assets under management (AUM).
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) hit $10 billion in just seven weeks.
This isn’t just adoption—it’s acceleration.
ETFs create what experts call an “infinite bid”—a constant stream of demand from institutional and retail investors buying BTC weekly through automated investment plans. Just like dollar-cost averaging into stocks via 401(k)s, millions of Americans can now invest in Bitcoin without ever touching a crypto exchange.
This structural shift means demand is no longer sporadic—it’s continuous.
👉 See how ETFs are transforming crypto access—and how to get in early.
Should You Buy Bitcoin Now?
Even though I expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 or higher, I wouldn’t allocate all my capital to BTC at current levels.
Why? Because history shows that smaller-cap cryptocurrencies often outperform Bitcoin during the mid-to-late stages of a bull run.
These high-growth digital assets—especially those with real utility in decentralized finance (DeFi), AI-blockchain integration, or Layer-1 innovation—can deliver 5x, 10x, or even higher returns in a strong market.
That said, Bitcoin remains the foundation of the ecosystem. It’s the safest bet for long-term wealth preservation and acts as a gateway to broader crypto exposure.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What stage of the crypto cycle are we in right now?
We’re likely in the middle phase of the bull market—around innings four to five. The halving has passed, prices have risen significantly, but major all-time highs have recently been confirmed. The euphoria phase is just beginning.
Q: When do most gains happen in a crypto cycle?
Approximately 80% of profits are made in the final 20% of the bull run. This is when media attention peaks, retail participation surges, and speculative mania drives exponential price increases.
Q: Are Bitcoin ETFs really that important?
Yes. Bitcoin ETFs represent a structural shift. They provide regulated, easy access to BTC for traditional investors and create sustained buying pressure through retirement accounts and automated investing—what many call an “infinite bid.”
Q: Should I invest in altcoins now?
Altcoins tend to perform best after Bitcoin stabilizes or enters a sideways phase, typically 12–18 months post-halving. With institutional capital flowing in and confidence rising, now is a strategic time to research high-potential projects with strong fundamentals.
Q: How can I invest safely in crypto?
Use regulated platforms, diversify across asset types (BTC, ETH, select altcoins), avoid leverage unless experienced, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Consider dollar-cost averaging to reduce timing risk.
Q: Is it too late to start investing in crypto?
No. While early adopters have seen massive gains, we’re still in the early innings of institutional adoption. With ETFs, global remittance use cases, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) emerging, crypto’s utility is expanding rapidly.
Final Thoughts: The Best Time to Act Is Now
We’re not at the end of the crypto cycle—we’re at the beginning of its most exciting chapter.
The halving has set the stage. ETFs have unlocked Wall Street capital. Public sentiment is shifting from skepticism to curiosity—and soon, to full-blown enthusiasm.
Whether you're investing in Bitcoin as digital gold or exploring high-growth cryptos with disruptive potential, the infrastructure for mass adoption is now in place.
The next 12–18 months could redefine wealth creation in the digital age.
👉 Start your journey today—access tools and insights that help you navigate the cycle with confidence.
Core Keywords: crypto cycle, Bitcoin halving, bull market 2025, Bitcoin ETFs, all-time highs, Veblen good crypto, crypto euphoria phase, Bitcoin price prediction 2025