The rapid evolution of quantum computing is no longer just a futuristic concept—it's becoming a tangible threat to one of the foundational pillars of digital security: encryption. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies relying heavily on cryptographic algorithms to secure transactions and wallets, experts are sounding the alarm that a "Q-Day"—the moment quantum computers can break current encryption—could arrive in as little as two to three years.
David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, warns that quantum machines may soon crack widely used cryptographic standards like RSA-2048, leaving Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem dangerously unprepared. While some experts still believe large-scale quantum threats are decades away, mounting evidence suggests the timeline may be far shorter than expected.
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The Global Race to Quantum Supremacy
Quantum computing is advancing at an unprecedented pace, driven by massive investments from governments and private enterprises worldwide. The race is no longer theoretical—it's geopolitical and economic.
South Korea recently announced a commitment of 650 billion won (over $480 million) over eight years to strengthen its quantum technology infrastructure, including high-performance quantum systems. Just days earlier, the United Kingdom pledged more than $921 million to accelerate quantum applications across critical sectors such as energy, healthcare, and national defense.
These moves reflect a global trend. According to a Q1 2025 report by The Quantum Insider, investment in quantum technology surged by 125% year-over-year, exceeding $1.25 billion. This influx of capital is accelerating research, talent development, and hardware innovation—pushing the boundaries of what quantum machines can achieve.
How Quantum Computing Breaks Encryption
Modern digital security relies on mathematical problems that are practically unsolvable by classical computers. For example, RSA-2048—a 2048-bit encryption standard—secures vast amounts of online data by using the near-impossibility of factoring the product of two large prime numbers.
Quantum computers, however, operate on fundamentally different principles. Using qubits and quantum algorithms like Shor’s algorithm, they can solve these complex factoring problems exponentially faster than classical supercomputers.
In a striking development, Google Quantum AI recently estimated that a quantum computer with fewer than one million qubits could break RSA-2048 in less than a week. This projection dramatically shortens the anticipated timeline for cryptographic vulnerability.
“It’s complacent to assume we even have five years left before RSA encryption can be broken—it’s more like 24–36 months,” said David Carvalho. “Cybercriminals are already preparing. Every day we delay action, the risk grows.”
Key Breakthroughs Accelerating the Threat
One of the most concerning milestones came in 2024, when a team led by Wang Chao from Shanghai University used a D-Wave quantum annealer to factor a 22-bit RSA key—surpassing the previous 19-bit record. While this may seem small compared to 2048-bit encryption, the rate of progress is alarming.
👉 Explore how blockchain networks are adapting to future threats.
This leap demonstrates that quantum cryptanalysis methods are evolving rapidly. Though current systems are not yet capable of breaking real-world encryption, the trajectory suggests that scalability and efficiency improvements could close the gap faster than anticipated.
Carvalho emphasizes that it’s not just raw qubit count that matters—it’s algorithmic innovation, error correction, and sustained computational power. “The speed of progress is what keeps me up at night,” he said. “We’re not dealing with linear growth. We’re seeing exponential acceleration in both hardware and software capabilities.”
Are We Overhyping the Quantum Threat?
Despite growing concern, many experts caution against panic. Breaking RSA-2048 requires a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC)—a machine capable of running Shor’s algorithm with high fault tolerance and long coherence times.
Today’s quantum computers are still noisy and error-prone. Achieving the stability and scale needed for a CRQC remains a monumental engineering challenge. Some researchers estimate such systems won’t be viable until the late 2030s or beyond.
However, preparation cannot wait for certainty. As Michele Mosca from the University of Waterloo has noted, there’s already a one-in-seven chance that public-key cryptography could be compromised by 2026. Major institutions like IBM, Microsoft, and SWIFT are already urging organizations to begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC).
“Once quantum computers break encryption, the damage is irreversible,” Carvalho warned. “Private keys will be exposed. Billions in digital assets could be stolen. And there’s no undo button.”
Preparing Bitcoin for the Quantum Future
Bitcoin’s security model relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) for digital signatures and SHA-256 for hashing. While SHA-256 is believed to be relatively quantum-resistant, ECC is vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm.
If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges, it could derive private keys from public keys—especially for reused addresses or unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) with exposed public keys.
Solutions are emerging:
- Quantum-resistant algorithms: NIST is finalizing PQC standards based on lattice-based, hash-based, and code-based cryptography.
- Address best practices: Using each Bitcoin address only once reduces exposure.
- Soft fork upgrades: The Bitcoin network could implement quantum-safe signatures through consensus changes.
Yet adoption remains slow. Unlike centralized systems that can push updates quickly, decentralized networks like Bitcoin require broad agreement—making proactive planning essential.
👉 Learn how secure digital asset platforms are integrating forward-looking security measures.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Can quantum computers break Bitcoin today?
A: No. Current quantum computers lack the qubit count, stability, and error correction needed to break Bitcoin’s encryption. The threat remains future-oriented but increasingly plausible within 2–3 years.
Q: What is a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC)?
A: A CRQC is a quantum computer powerful and stable enough to run algorithms like Shor’s at scale—capable of breaking RSA or ECC encryption in practical timeframes.
Q: Is SHA-256 hashing vulnerable to quantum attacks?
A: SHA-256 is considered relatively secure against quantum computing due to its resistance to Grover’s algorithm, which only provides a quadratic speedup—meaning it would still require immense computational resources.
Q: How can I protect my Bitcoin from quantum threats?
A: Use each Bitcoin address only once, avoid reusing addresses with exposed public keys, and consider storing funds in newer wallets that support quantum-resistant features when available.
Q: Will Bitcoin need a hard fork to become quantum-resistant?
A: Not necessarily. Many experts believe quantum resistance can be achieved through soft forks—backward-compatible upgrades that don’t split the network.
Q: Are other cryptocurrencies more vulnerable than Bitcoin?
A: Some altcoins with weaker cryptographic standards or reused addresses may be more exposed. However, most major blockchains face similar risks and are exploring PQC integration.
Core Keywords
- Quantum computing threat
- Bitcoin encryption security
- Post-quantum cryptography
- Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC)
- RSA-2048 break
- Shor’s algorithm
- Quantum-resistant blockchain
- Future of Bitcoin security
The window to safeguard digital assets against quantum threats is narrowing. While full-scale attacks may still be years away, the time to act is now—before Q-Day arrives without warning.