Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from last week’s sharp decline, currently trading at $62,600. This recovery comes amid growing signs of renewed market appetite, sparking renewed speculation: Is Bitcoin entering the early stages of a new bull market?
Recent on-chain data suggests a significant uptick in demand for the leading cryptocurrency—levels not seen since April 2022. As investor sentiment shifts and seasonal trends align, many analysts are watching closely to see if this momentum could fuel a powerful upward move in the months ahead.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand Surge
At the heart of this analysis is the apparent demand metric, a key on-chain indicator used to gauge market activity. This metric calculates the difference between Bitcoin’s daily block subsidy (newly minted BTC from mining) and the change in long-term holder supply. When long-term holders are accumulating more than the new supply, apparent demand turns positive—signaling strong underlying buying pressure.
Julio Moreno, Research Director at CryptoQuant, shared insights on X (formerly Twitter) indicating that Bitcoin’s demand growth is accelerating at its fastest monthly pace since April 2022. While overall demand momentum remains in negative territory—meaning selling pressure still outweighs buying—the imbalance has notably narrowed.
“Bitcoin demand seems to be recovering.
Demand is growing at the fastest monthly pace since April 22.
Although demand momentum remains in negative territory (red bars), meaning that there is still more selling than buying, the scale of this imbalance has eased.
Monitor Bitcoin…”
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno), October 12, 2024
This subtle but important shift suggests that market dynamics may be stabilizing after a prolonged period of net outflows and profit-taking.
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From Weakness to Recovery: The Road to Renewed Confidence
Prior to this rebound, Bitcoin’s demand had been weakening since April 2024, when prices hovered around $70,000. During that time, the apparent demand metric frequently dipped into negative territory, reflecting profit-taking by long-term holders and reduced investor appetite.
However, the current trend marks a potential turning point. The fact that demand is now climbing back toward levels seen during previous accumulation phases suggests growing confidence among investors. Even though selling pressure persists, its diminishing intensity indicates that bearish momentum may be losing steam.
Moreno emphasized that while net selling continues, the shrinking gap between buy and sell pressure is a bullish signal in itself. Markets often bottom out not when buying surges, but when selling dries up—and Bitcoin may now be approaching that inflection point.
Seasonal Trends and the Fourth Quarter Outlook
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong performance in the fourth quarter of halving years. Although 2024 was not a halving year (the last halving occurred in April 2024), the post-halving period typically creates favorable conditions for price appreciation due to reduced supply inflation.
According to a report from early October, Bitcoin may be entering a seasonally strong phase. The final months of the year have historically favored bullish movements, driven by increased institutional inflows, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and heightened retail interest.
With apparent demand now aligning with levels seen during previous pre-bull phases, analysts suggest that Bitcoin could be setting the stage for a significant price move. Some even project the possibility of a new all-time high before the end of 2025.
Of course, sustained price growth will depend heavily on continued demand accumulation. A shift from net selling to net buying—especially among long-term investors—will be critical in confirming a true bull market revival.
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Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
To better understand and track Bitcoin’s evolving market dynamics, it's essential to focus on a few core keywords that reflect current sentiment and technical trends:
- Bitcoin demand
- Apparent demand metric
- BTC price recovery
- On-chain analysis
- Bitcoin bull run 2025
- Post-halving market cycle
- Long-term holder accumulation
- Market momentum shift
These terms are not only central to analyst discussions but also reflect what investors are actively searching for online. Their natural integration into market commentary helps improve visibility while delivering value-driven content.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What is apparent demand in Bitcoin?
Apparent demand measures the difference between newly mined Bitcoin (block subsidy) and changes in long-term holder supply. A rising apparent demand indicates that investors are holding more BTC than is being newly issued, signaling accumulation and bullish sentiment.
2. Does rising demand guarantee a bull run?
Not immediately. While increasing demand is a positive sign, a full bull market typically requires sustained buying pressure, declining exchange reserves, and strong investor confidence. Demand must turn net positive and remain elevated over time.
3. Why is Q4 historically strong for Bitcoin?
The fourth quarter often sees increased institutional activity, tax-related selling exhaustion, and seasonal optimism. In post-halving cycles, reduced supply inflation amplifies these effects, creating favorable conditions for price growth.
4. How can I track Bitcoin’s demand in real time?
On-chain analytics platforms like CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and CoinMetrics offer real-time dashboards tracking apparent demand, exchange flows, and holder behavior—key indicators for spotting early accumulation phases.
5. What price levels should I watch for confirmation of a bull run?
A break above $65,000 with strong volume could signal renewed bullish momentum. Sustained trading above $70,000—especially with declining exchange reserves—would further support the case for a new all-time high in 2025.
6. Are long-term holders starting to accumulate again?
Data suggests they are beginning to stabilize holdings after months of profit-taking. While not yet in full accumulation mode, the slowing pace of outflows from long-term wallets indicates growing confidence at current price levels.
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Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism Ahead
Bitcoin’s recent rebound and rising apparent demand paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the remainder of 2025. While selling pressure hasn’t fully reversed, the narrowing imbalance between buy and sell forces suggests the market may be nearing a turning point.
With favorable seasonal trends on the horizon and post-halving fundamentals gradually improving, the conditions are ripe for a potential bull run—if demand continues to build. Investors should monitor key on-chain metrics closely, particularly shifts in long-term holder behavior and exchange outflows.
For those tracking the broader cycle, now may be an ideal time to reassess positioning and prepare for what could be one of Bitcoin’s most significant chapters yet.
As always, staying informed with reliable data—not hype—is the best strategy for navigating volatile markets and capturing long-term value.