Bitcoin Set To Hit $200,000 By Year-End, Says Standard Chartered

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The world of digital assets is buzzing with renewed optimism as one of the most respected financial institutions, Standard Chartered, has doubled down on its bullish forecast for Bitcoin. According to the bank’s latest analysis, Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by Q3 2025** and surge further to **$200,000 by year-end. This aggressive projection marks a significant shift from historical price patterns and underscores a fundamental transformation in how institutions and investors are approaching Bitcoin.

At the heart of this new outlook is Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered. He argues that traditional halving cycle dynamics—once a reliable predictor of Bitcoin’s price behavior—are no longer the dominant force shaping market trends. Instead, powerful new drivers such as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption are rewriting the rules.

👉 Discover how institutional demand is fueling the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull run.

Breaking the Halving Cycle: A New Market Paradigm

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a predictable rhythm after each halving event—roughly every four years, when mining rewards are cut in half. In the 2016 and 2020 cycles, prices spiked post-halving but typically crashed around 18 months later as speculative fervor cooled and supply pressures mounted.

However, the April 2024 halving appears to be different. While it did reduce miner revenues—a factor that traditionally leads to short-term price corrections—the market response has been more resilient than expected. Kendrick attributes this strength to sustained institutional demand, which is now powerful enough to counterbalance typical post-halving sell-offs.

“Bitcoin is no longer driven solely by retail speculation or mining economics,” Kendrick explained in Standard Chartered’s recent report. “We’re seeing structural shifts—ETFs and corporate treasuries are absorbing supply in ways we’ve never seen before.”

This evolving landscape suggests that the old models may no longer apply. Even if volatility returns in late Q3 or early Q4, the underlying fundamentals support continued upward momentum.

ETF Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand

Despite a brief pause in investor appetite—evidenced by $342.3 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs on July 1, 2025—long-term trends remain overwhelmingly positive. These outflows followed a 15-day streak of consecutive inflows totaling $4.8 billion, meaning the pullback represented just 7% of recent capital inflow.

According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract steady institutional interest. The Q2 2025 acquisition volume reached 245,000 BTC, and analysts expect similar or higher levels in the coming quarters.

Beyond raw numbers, on-chain metrics offer deeper insight into market sentiment. João Wedson, founder of Alphractal, highlighted a key indicator: the 1-Year Active Supply has not declined. This means long-term holders are not selling, signaling ongoing accumulation rather than distribution.

Conversely, the 30-Day Active Supply—a gauge of short-term trading activity—remains subdued. Even with Bitcoin trading above $109,800, there’s no sign of speculative mania. This imbalance between strong fundamentals and restrained hype suggests room for further upside.

"The 1-Year Active Supply has not yet shown signs of decline, meaning there is still room for accumulation. Meanwhile, the 30-Day Active Supply... has not reached high levels. This indicates that prices above $109K are not making holders panic-sell."
— João Wedson (@joao_wedson), July 2, 2025

Such data reinforces the idea that we’re in a structurally different bull market—one built on ownership and strategic investment rather than short-term speculation.

👉 See how real-time on-chain data can help predict Bitcoin’s next move.

Corporate Treasuries Hold Over 848,000 BTC

One of the most transformative developments in 2025 has been the rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. As of mid-year, 51 public companies collectively hold 848,902 BTC, according to CryptoQuant. While most hold small amounts, nine firms own over 10,000 BTC each—marking a clear tier of dedicated institutional adopters.

Leading the pack is MicroStrategy (MSTR), which now holds an astounding 597,325 BTC. Its deep integration with Bitcoin has made its stock a de facto proxy for direct Bitcoin exposure, influencing both investor sentiment and broader market dynamics.

But MSTR is no longer alone. New players are entering aggressively:

These moves aren’t isolated—they reflect a growing trend where companies treat Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset, akin to gold or cash reserves. As more firms allocate capital to Bitcoin, they reduce circulating supply and amplify price resilience.

Moreover, stock prices of these companies often move in tandem with Bitcoin, reinforcing their role as indirect investment vehicles. For investors seeking regulated exposure to Bitcoin without holding it directly, these equities have become increasingly attractive.

This wave of adoption signals a second phase of institutionalization, where strategic balance sheet decisions—not just ETF flows—are shaping Bitcoin’s future.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Why does Standard Chartered believe Bitcoin will hit $200,000?
A: The bank cites two main factors: sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing corporate treasury demand. These forces are absorbing supply and creating structural scarcity, overriding traditional post-halving correction patterns.

Q: Is the current bull run different from previous ones?
A: Yes. Unlike earlier cycles driven by retail speculation, today’s rally is underpinned by institutional ownership, long-term holding behavior (evidenced by on-chain data), and corporate balance sheet strategies.

Q: How much Bitcoin do companies really hold?
A: Over 848,000 BTC is now held by 51 public companies. MicroStrategy alone owns nearly 60% of that total, with newer entrants like Twenty One and Metaplanet Japan rapidly expanding their positions.

Q: Could ETF outflows reverse the bullish trend?
A: Short-term outflows are normal and expected. However, given that they represent a small fraction of total inflows and long-term accumulation remains strong, they are unlikely to derail the broader uptrend.

Q: What on-chain metrics support higher prices?
A: Key indicators include a stable 1-Year Active Supply (showing long-term holders aren’t selling) and low 30-Day Active Supply (indicating absence of speculative frenzy). Together, they suggest the market is still in an accumulation phase.

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Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin

The path to $200,000 isn’t based on hype—it’s being paved by real-world adoption. Standard Chartered’s bold forecast reflects a market transformed by ETFs, corporate treasuries, and maturing on-chain behavior. While volatility will persist, the foundation for sustained growth has never been stronger.

Whether through direct investment or exposure via equities like MSTR or XXI, investors now have multiple avenues to participate in this historic shift. And as supply continues to tighten and demand grows, the case for higher prices only strengthens.

Bitcoin isn’t just repeating its past cycles—it’s evolving beyond them.