The Bitcoin halving is now just days away, sparking renewed excitement and anticipation across the crypto market. With historical trends and fresh institutional insights converging, many investors are positioning themselves for the next leg of Bitcoin’s bullish journey. According to a recent client report from global investment firm AB Bernstein, analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expect Bitcoin’s upward momentum to resume after the halving event, with a bold price target of $150,000.
“We expect Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to resume post-halving, once mining hash rate stabilizes and ETF inflows recover (which have been flat or negative over the past 10 days), ultimately reaching our $150,000 price target.”
This outlook aligns closely with broader market sentiment, particularly as structural demand drivers like spot Bitcoin ETFs begin to reshape the investment landscape. The report underscores that while the halving itself doesn’t directly cause price appreciation, it sets the stage for renewed demand catalysts to take center stage.
👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s next big move
Why the Halving Matters: Supply Scarcity Meets Demand Surge
Bitcoin’s halving—occurring roughly every four years—reduces the block reward miners receive by 50%. This built-in mechanism enforces digital scarcity, mimicking the extraction curve of precious metals like gold. Historically, each halving has been followed by significant price rallies, though not immediately.
Bernstein’s analysis emphasizes that the key driver isn’t just reduced supply from miners, but rather the emergence of new demand in the post-halving phase. While it's true that miners will earn fewer BTC rewards and may reduce selling pressure, the firm argues this effect is now marginal.
“At current prices, miners generate around $50 million worth of Bitcoin daily—just 0.12% of average daily trading volume. So, the argument that reduced miner sell pressure alone drives price appreciation no longer holds strong.”
Instead, the real catalyst lies in institutional adoption. In previous cycles, demand surges were fueled by post-pandemic liquidity and corporate treasury allocations—companies like Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy made headline-grabbing BTC purchases. Today, the spotlight has shifted to spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become a mainstream gateway for traditional investors.
ETF approvals in early 2024 opened the floodgates, and Bernstein projects a staggering **$80 billion in net inflows** between 2024 and 2025, building on the $12 billion already absorbed this year. This structural shift suggests that demand may outpace supply reductions more than ever before.
What History Tells Us: Past Halvings and Market Cycles
Looking back at previous halving events offers valuable context:
- 2012 Halving: Bitcoin rose from ~$12 to over $1,000 within a year.
- 2016 Halving: Price climbed from ~$650 to nearly $20,000 by end-2017.
- 2020 Halving: BTC surged from ~$9,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in late 2021.
While each cycle varies in timing and magnitude, a common pattern emerges: a consolidation period post-halving, followed by a powerful bull run driven by increasing awareness and capital inflows.
Bernstein believes the current cycle could be even more impactful due to the maturation of crypto infrastructure and the entry of regulated financial products. Unlike earlier cycles driven largely by retail speculation, today’s market is increasingly shaped by institutional participation, lending credibility and stability to Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
👉 See how institutional inflows are reshaping crypto markets
Impact on Miners: Consolidation and Resilience
While much attention focuses on price, the halving also significantly affects Bitcoin miners. With block rewards cut in half—from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block—mining profitability tightens overnight.
In recent weeks, negative headlines around margin compression have weighed on publicly traded mining stocks, with many down 15–20% over the past 30 days. Notably, no major crypto miner has outperformed Bitcoin YTD.
Yet Bernstein highlights a silver lining: many top miners enter this phase with strong balance sheets and record-high USD-denominated revenues thanks to favorable pricing before the halving. Lower debt levels further enhance resilience.
The firm forecasts a 7% drop in network hash rate immediately following the event as less efficient miners are forced offline. However, this will likely lead to increased concentration among dominant players such as CleanSpark, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining, who benefit from scale, low-cost energy, and advanced hardware.
“If BTC prices remain stable or rise post-halving, we expect top-tier miners to not only survive but thrive—expanding market share and operational efficiency.”
Moreover, Bernstein sees potential for miner equities to outperform Bitcoin over the next 12 months if hash rate recovery aligns with sustained ETF inflows and rising adoption.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What exactly happens during a Bitcoin halving?
A: Every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), the reward miners receive for validating transactions is cut in half. This reduces the rate of new Bitcoin creation, enforcing scarcity and influencing long-term supply dynamics.
Q: Does the halving directly cause Bitcoin’s price to go up?
A: Not immediately. The halving reduces new supply but doesn’t guarantee price increases. Historically, significant rallies occur months later when new demand—such as institutional investment or ETF inflows—meets constrained supply.
Q: How do spot Bitcoin ETFs influence post-halving performance?
A: Spot ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding it directly. Their approval has unlocked trillions in accessible capital from pension funds, endowments, and retail platforms—creating a durable source of demand that wasn't present in earlier cycles.
Q: Could a drop in Bitcoin price after halving trigger a mining crisis?
A: A sharp decline below $40,000 could force inefficient miners offline and reduce hash rate significantly. However, Bernstein considers this unlikely given strong institutional demand and healthy miner fundamentals entering the event.
Q: Are miner stocks a good investment after the halving?
A: High-efficiency mining companies with strong balance sheets may outperform Bitcoin in the medium term. Investors should focus on operators with low energy costs, modern rigs, and scalable infrastructure.
Q: When is the next Bitcoin halving expected?
A: The next halving is projected to occur around April 2024 (block 840,000). Exact timing depends on block generation speed but typically falls within a few days of the estimated date.
Looking Ahead: The Road to $150,000
Bernstein’s $150,000 price target may sound ambitious, but it reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin’s evolving role as a macro asset. As central banks navigate inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, digital assets are increasingly seen as a hedge against currency debasement.
With spot ETFs providing regulated access, corporate treasuries reconsidering asset allocation, and global liquidity conditions improving, the ingredients for another major rally appear to be in place.
While short-term volatility is inevitable—and historical patterns show muted performance immediately after halvings—the medium- to long-term outlook remains constructive. Investors watching hash rate stabilization, ETF inflow recovery, and institutional adoption trends will likely find clues to Bitcoin’s next major move.
👉 Explore tools to track Bitcoin’s real-time network metrics
As the countdown ends and the halving completes, one thing is clear: we’re not just witnessing a protocol update—we’re witnessing the continued institutionalization of digital gold.