Ethereum PoW Fork: Analyzing ETHPoW Value and Success Potential

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The Ethereum blockchain is on the brink of one of the most significant transitions in its history—the Merge. As the network shifts from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS), a growing debate has emerged around the potential survival and value of a continued PoW chain, commonly referred to as ETHPoW. While the official Ethereum network moves forward with staking and energy efficiency, a faction of miners and supporters may attempt to keep the old mining-based chain alive. But does ETHPoW have real economic value? And what are the odds it will succeed?

This article explores the technical, economic, and social dynamics behind the Ethereum PoW fork, evaluates its long-term viability, and discusses strategic implications for investors, traders, and developers.

The Merge and the End of Ethereum Mining

Ethereum’s transition to PoS—commonly known as “the Merge”—was finalized in September 2022, marking the end of energy-intensive mining on the network. Prior to this, developers had delayed the event multiple times, with core contributor Tim Beiko suggesting September 19, 2022, as a tentative date during a July 14 developer call. Though not guaranteed at the time, that timeline ultimately held.

With the Merge complete, Ethereum now relies on staked ETH to secure the network via the Beacon Chain. Execution layer clients like Geth continue to process transactions and smart contracts, but mining is no longer part of the consensus mechanism. Notably, even after the Merge, stakers couldn’t immediately withdraw their ETH—this functionality arrived later with the Shanghai upgrade.

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Why ETHPoW? The Miner Resistance

Despite broad support from the Ethereum community and core developers for PoS, PoW miners faced complete exclusion. Unlike EIP-1559, which only reduced miner revenue, the Merge eliminated it entirely. Unsurprisingly, many miners opposed the change.

One of the most visible figures supporting a PoW continuation was Chinese mining influencer "Bao'er Ye" (Guo Hongcai), who publicly expressed interest in maintaining the PoW chain. This sparked speculation about a new fork—ETHPoW—that would preserve mining rewards and resist the shift to staking.

But can such a chain survive?

The Ice Age and Difficulty Bomb: Designed to Kill PoW

Ethereum’s developers anticipated resistance. To discourage lingering PoW chains, they introduced the difficulty bomb—a mechanism that exponentially increases mining difficulty over time, making block production slower and eventually impractical.

Originally planned for activation in 2017 with the Serenity upgrade, the bomb has been delayed six times through hard forks due to PoS delays. The 2022 reset aimed to align its detonation with the Merge, gradually increasing average block times from ~13 seconds to 30 seconds over several months—effectively freezing PoW activity.

For ETHPoW to survive, it must hard fork to remove the difficulty bomb. This creates a legitimacy problem: ETHPoW cannot claim to be the “true” continuation of Ethereum, as it requires altering core protocol rules. It becomes a deliberate alternative—not an organic evolution.

Technical Challenges for ETHPoW

Running a viable PoW fork isn’t just about ideology—it demands infrastructure:

While these hurdles aren’t insurmountable, they significantly reduce ETHPoW’s chances of becoming a robust, secure network.

Staking and Token Supply: A Critical Disadvantage

At the time of the Merge, over 13 million ETH were staked on the Beacon Chain—representing nearly 11% of total supply. On ETHPoW, these staked funds would be inaccessible or non-existent unless the fork explicitly recognizes them.

Most likely, ETHPoW would treat staked ETH as invalid or permanently locked. This creates two outcomes:

  1. Reduced Supply: With ~13M ETH missing from circulation, ETHPoW could see short-term price inflation due to scarcity.
  2. Loss of Trust: Users who held staked derivatives like stETH would lose value on ETHPoW, damaging credibility.

This divergence undermines ETHPoW’s appeal to DeFi users and institutional participants.

The Stablecoin Factor: Who Really Decides?

Some argue that control over Ethereum’s future doesn’t lie with Vitalik Buterin or the Foundation—but with stablecoin issuers like Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT).

These entities must choose which chain to support. Given their regulatory exposure and integration with DeFi ecosystems on PoS Ethereum, both Circle and Tether announced support for ETH2 (the PoS chain). Binance also backed ETH2.

Without stablecoin backing, DeFi protocols on ETHPoW collapse economically. DAI could theoretically exist on both chains, but without USDC/USDT liquidity, most lending markets fail.

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Market Sentiment: From Rejection to Opportunity

Hardcore Ethereum maximalists likely want ETHPoW to fail quickly. However, there’s a paradoxical incentive: maximalists may want ETHPoW to survive temporarily so they can sell high to believers before it fades.

This creates a short-term price floor driven by speculative trading rather than utility.

But here's a deeper layer: the smart move might be to buy ETHPoW immediately after the fork.

Why Buy ETHPoW Right After the Fork?

Consider this arbitrage strategy:

  1. Before Merge: Hold USDC in your own wallet.
  2. After Merge: On the ETHPoW chain, trade USDC for ETHPoW via decentralized exchanges like Uniswap or Curve.
  3. Once CEXs List ETHPoW: Sell ETHPoW for USD or stablecoins on centralized exchanges.
  4. Profit from Price Divergence.

Since CEXs take hours or days to support deposits (due to reorg and double-spend risks), DEXs offer first access. Early buyers can capitalize on temporary mispricing.

This is effectively a risk-free (or low-risk) arbitrage, assuming you control your keys and act quickly.

Will ETHPoW Have Any Long-Term Value?

Realistically? Unlikely.

While nostalgia for 2016–2017-era forks may spark interest, ETHPoW lacks:

Unlike Bitcoin Cash or Ethereum Classic—which had early community splits and philosophical foundations—ETHPoW is primarily a miner-driven effort without broad user demand.

However, as a speculative asset, it may see volatility and short-term trading volume, especially during the immediate post-Merge period.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is ETHPoW?

ETHPoW is a proposed proof-of-work fork of Ethereum that continues mining after the Merge transitioned Ethereum to proof-of-stake.

Is ETHPoW supported by Ethereum developers?

No. Core developers and the Ethereum Foundation fully support PoS Ethereum (ETH2). No official client supports continuing PoW.

Can I mine ETHPoW?

Yes—if a working client exists and sufficient hashrate migrates. However, profitability depends on price, difficulty, and exchange support.

What happens to staked ETH on ETHPoW?

Staked ETH (including stETH) is typically not recognized on ETHPoW chains, meaning balances may be zero or invalid.

Will exchanges list ETHPoW?

Some smaller or region-specific exchanges may list it temporarily for trading, but major platforms like Coinbase have stated no plans to support it.

Is trading ETHPoW risky?

Yes. Liquidity may be low, price manipulation is possible, and technical risks like reorganizations are high immediately after launch.

👉 Learn how to navigate post-fork volatility safely

Final Thoughts

The emergence of ETHPoW represents more than just a technical fork—it reflects tensions between decentralization ideals, economic incentives, and community governance. While unlikely to challenge PoS Ethereum’s dominance, it offers a unique window into market psychology and on-chain arbitrage.

For traders: monitor DEX activity immediately after forks.
For holders: secure your assets and understand chain-specific balances.
For believers in decentralization: remember that no single entity controls outcomes—coordination does.

As always in crypto, opportunity hides in transition.

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