The crypto market has roared back to life in October, fueled by a wave of regulatory optimism and renewed investor confidence. Bitcoin (BTC) surged past the $35,000 mark and stabilized above $34,000, marking an impressive 14.44% gain in 24 hours and a staggering 108.65% year-to-date return. This rally wasn’t driven by speculative hype alone — it was underpinned by tangible regulatory progress that has shifted market sentiment from skepticism to cautious euphoria.
From Ripple’s legal breakthrough to Grayscale’s court victory and the growing momentum behind spot Bitcoin ETFs, October has become a pivotal month for crypto regulation. These developments have not only lifted Bitcoin but also energized the broader digital asset ecosystem.
Regulatory Developments Driving Market Confidence
After the devastating blow of the LUNA collapse and FTX bankruptcy in 2022 and early 2023, the crypto market needed a strong catalyst to reignite investor interest. That spark came in October, as a series of regulatory milestones reshaped the landscape.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Momentum Builds: The BlackRock Effect
One of the most influential narratives this month revolves around the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs — and BlackRock is at the center of it.
- On October 16, a report from Cointelegraph claiming that BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin ETF had been approved sent BTC soaring nearly 10% to $30,000 before the news was quickly debunked. Despite being false, the market reaction revealed just how much investor anticipation surrounds ETF approval.
- On October 24, BlackRock’s proposed ETF (ticker: IBTC) appeared on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) website — a platform used by Nasdaq for ETF clearing. While not official SEC approval, this move was widely interpreted as a strong signal that regulatory green lights may be imminent. BTC surged to $35,000, its highest level in 18 months.
- Later that day, DTCC briefly removed IBTC from its listing, causing a short-term dip below $33,400. However, the listing was restored the next morning, and prices rebounded. The episode triggered $46.76 million in liquidations, with 88% being long positions — underscoring bullish sentiment.
SEC Drops Charges Against Ripple: A Landmark Resolution
The three-year legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reached a turning point in October.
- In July 2023, a federal judge ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute unregistered securities offerings — a major win for Ripple.
- On October 4, the SEC’s request for an interlocutory appeal was denied.
- On October 20, the SEC officially dropped its charges against Ripple. XRP responded with a nearly 10% spike, while BTC gained over 5%.
While the ruling didn’t fully exonerate Ripple — institutional sales were still deemed securities — the resolution brought clarity to crypto’s regulatory gray zone and boosted confidence across the board.
Grayscale Wins Legal Battle to Convert GBTC to ETF
Grayscale Investments achieved a historic legal victory on October 24, when a U.S. appeals court ruled that the SEC must reconsider its denial of Grayscale’s application to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot ETF.
- The court found the SEC’s reasoning inconsistent, especially given its prior approval of futures-based Bitcoin ETFs.
- Grayscale resubmitted its S-3 registration form on October 23 and secured a CUSIP number — a key step toward ETF conversion.
- GBTC’s discount to net asset value narrowed sharply to -11.03%, the tightest since August 2021.
- The decision led to $341 million in total liquidations, with $271 million coming from short sellers — a sign of bearish capitulation.
This ruling sets a precedent that could accelerate approvals for other spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including those from BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck.
Spot Ethereum ETFs Gain Traction
While much attention is on Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum is not far behind.
- On October 20, Invesco and Galaxy Digital filed paperwork with CBOE for a spot Ethereum ETF.
- On October 24, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, confirmed that the SEC had acknowledged Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF filing.
Analysts believe Ethereum could follow Bitcoin into regulated ETF territory within the next 12–18 months, further expanding institutional access.
Broader Crypto Market Performance
The regulatory tailwinds have lifted more than just Bitcoin. The entire digital asset class has outperformed traditional markets in October.
- Total crypto market cap rose 14.22% in the month.
- Bitcoin gained 22.71%.
- Ethereum (ETH) climbed 5.71%.
- The S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Index (SPCBDM) advanced 11.71%.
In contrast, traditional assets declined:
- S&P 500: -1.66%
- Nasdaq Composite: -1.52%
- Dow Jones: -1.70%
- Crude Oil: -5.19% to -5.63%
- Gold: +6.10%
The Fear & Greed Index jumped to 72, indicating "extreme greed" — levels not seen since 2021.
ETF inflows have also accelerated. Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) saw rapid growth in holdings, reflecting rising demand for regulated crypto investment vehicles.
Key On-Chain and Valuation Indicators Signal Upside Potential
Several technical and on-chain metrics suggest that the rally may have further room to run.
MVRV Ratio: Bitcoin Still Undervalued
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 0.67 — well below 1, indicating Bitcoin is still significantly undervalued historically. When MVRV is below 1, it often precedes major price recoveries.
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking
CDD measures long-term holder activity. A spike would suggest large-scale selling by HODLers. Currently, CDD is volatile but shows no upward trend — meaning long-term holders aren’t exiting en masse.
Bitcoin Cycle Indicator: Emerging from the "Undervalued" Zone
This cyclical model, similar to the Rainbow Chart, shows BTC moving above the "undervalued" threshold and approaching "fair value." Historically, such transitions align with bull market phases, often tied to halving cycles.
DeFi Activity Rebounds
Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has reversed its downtrend, now sitting at $22.15 billion on Ethereum alone. Increased TVL signals returning user engagement and confidence in blockchain applications.
Puell Multiple: Miner Revenue Strengthens
The Puell Multiple — which compares current miner revenue to its 365-day average — is above 1 and trending upward. This indicates miners are earning more than average, supporting continued network security and investment in mining infrastructure.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does the SEC dropping charges against Ripple mean for crypto?
A: It sets a precedent that not all token sales are securities, providing legal clarity and reducing regulatory uncertainty for other projects.
Q: Will spot Bitcoin ETFs definitely be approved?
A: While not guaranteed, recent court rulings and institutional filings suggest approval odds are higher than ever — possibly by early 2025.
Q: Is Bitcoin still a good investment at $34K–$35K?
A: Based on valuation models like MVRV and historical cycles, many analysts believe BTC remains undervalued relative to its long-term potential.
Q: How do ETF approvals benefit average investors?
A: They provide regulated, accessible exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts, lowering entry barriers and boosting mainstream adoption.
Q: Could regulatory progress slow down?
A: Yes — setbacks like DTCC removing IBTC temporarily show volatility can return quickly if expectations aren’t met.
Q: What’s next after Bitcoin ETFs?
A: Spot Ethereum ETFs are the next frontier, followed by potential approvals for Solana, Litecoin, or other major assets.
Final Outlook: Regulatory Clarity Fuels the Next Phase
The confluence of legal victories, institutional interest, and improving on-chain fundamentals paints an optimistic picture for crypto in late 2024 and beyond. While short-term volatility remains — as seen with DTCC’s IBTC listing drama — the structural shift toward regulation is undeniable.
Investors are watching closely. Whether through ETF approvals, court rulings, or policy shifts, the path toward mainstream adoption is becoming clearer.
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