Bitcoin’s price movements are far from random. Over the past decade, a consistent rhythm has emerged—one that repeats roughly every four years. This phenomenon, known as the crypto 4-year cycle, is closely tied to the Bitcoin halving event, a built-in mechanism that reduces mining rewards by 50% approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years).
Each halving triggers a supply shock, decreasing the number of new bitcoins entering circulation. Historically, this scarcity has catalyzed powerful bull markets, followed by extended bear phases. By understanding the four key stages—Accumulation, Uptrend (Bull Market), Distribution (Cycle Peak), and Downtrend (Bear Market)—investors can better anticipate market shifts and refine their strategies.
The Four Stages of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle
1. Accumulation Phase
The accumulation phase begins after the depths of a bear market, when fear dominates and prices hover near their lows. This is where informed investors—often referred to as "smart money"—quietly build positions before the broader market takes notice.
During this stage:
- Volatility is low, and price action consolidates in a tight range.
- Long-term holders (HODLers) steadily accumulate BTC.
- On-chain metrics like the Mayer Multiple fall below 1, indicating undervaluation.
- Retail interest remains minimal, but institutional activity may begin to rise.
Historical Examples:
- 2015: Following the 2013 peak and subsequent crash, accumulation began and lasted until the 2016 halving.
- 2019: After the 2017 bubble burst, BTC bottomed around $3,200, with accumulation continuing into early 2020.
Current Cycle Timing: Q1 2023 – April 2024
Bitcoin found support near $15,500 in late 2022 and gradually climbed through 2023. With minimal media hype and steady on-chain accumulation, this period fits the classic accumulation mold.
2. Uptrend (Bull Market)
The bull market ignites shortly after the halving, as reduced supply meets growing demand. This phase is marked by increasing optimism, rising adoption, and surging prices.
Key drivers include:
- Institutional investment (e.g., ETF approvals, corporate balance sheets).
- Retail FOMO (fear of missing out) fueled by media coverage.
- Positive on-chain signals: rising RSI, MACD crossover, and increasing wallet activity.
- The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio climbs above 1, signaling prices are above fair value.
Historical Bull Runs:
- 2016–2017: BTC surged from ~$650 to nearly $20,000 within 18 months.
- 2020–2021: Post-halving rally pushed BTC to an all-time high of $69,000.
Current Cycle Timing: April 2024 – 2025
With the April 2024 halving complete and spot Bitcoin ETFs now live in the U.S., demand is accelerating. Analysts expect a strong uptrend through 2025.
3. Distribution (Cycle Peak)
The distribution phase marks the euphoric climax of the bull market. Prices reach unsustainable highs as latecomers rush in, while early investors quietly exit.
Warning signs include:
- RSI consistently above 70 (overbought).
- Puell Multiple spikes—miners receive unusually high returns, often preceding a top.
- Long-term holders begin distributing coins; exchange inflows increase.
- Social media frenzy and mainstream media declaring “Bitcoin will hit $1 million.”
Past Cycle Peaks:
- December 2013: $1,150
- December 2017: $19,600
- November 2021: $68,789
Expected Current Peak: Mid to late 2025
Given historical patterns and current momentum, many analysts project a peak in late 2025—roughly 18 months post-halving.
👉 Learn how to recognize the signs of a market top and protect your gains before the next downturn.
4. Downtrend (Bear Market)
After the peak comes the reckoning. The bear market is characterized by declining prices, eroding confidence, and prolonged sideways or downward movement.
Traits of this phase:
- Trading volume and social engagement drop.
- RSI falls into oversold territory (<30), but rebounds fail.
- Long-term holders resume accumulation; new investors capitulate.
- The Mayer Multiple drops below 1 again, signaling value re-emergence.
Past Bear Markets:
- 2014–2015: BTC fell from $1,150 to ~$300.
- 2018–2019: Drop from $19,600 to ~$3,200.
- 2022: Collapse from $69k to ~$15.5k amid macro headwinds.
Projected Current Downtrend: 2025–2026
Following a potential peak in late 2025, a correction could unfold into 2026—setting the stage for the next accumulation phase.
How Altcoins Follow Bitcoin’s Cycle
While Bitcoin leads the market, major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) tend to mirror its rhythm—often peaking a few months after BTC.
Ethereum (ETH)
- 2018 Peak: January 2018 (~$1,420), ~1 month after BTC’s 2017 top.
- 2021 Peak: November 2021 (~$4,870), concurrent with BTC’s peak.
- Current Outlook: Likely to peak in late 2025 or early 2026.
Solana (SOL)
- 2021 Peak: November 2021 (~$258).
- Despite no prior full cycle data (launched in 2020), SOL has shown strong correlation with BTC sentiment.
- Expected to follow a similar lag pattern in the current cycle.
Altcoin investors should watch Bitcoin’s trajectory closely—its cycle often sets the tone for the broader market.
FAQ: Your Questions About Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle
Q: What causes Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle?
A: The primary driver is the halving event, which cuts mining rewards in half every ~4 years. This reduces new supply, creating scarcity that historically fuels price appreciation over time.
Q: Is the 4-year cycle guaranteed to repeat?
A: While not a law, the cycle has repeated consistently since 2013. However, macroeconomic factors, regulation, and adoption can influence its timing and intensity.
Q: How can I tell which phase we’re in now?
A: Use on-chain metrics: low volatility and Mayer Multiple <1 suggest accumulation; rising RSI and MVRV >3 signal bull market; Puell spikes and exchange inflows hint at distribution.
Q: Should I sell at the cycle peak?
A: Many investors use tiered exit strategies—selling portions at key resistance levels or based on indicators like RSI >90 or MVRV >3. Automation via stop-loss or take-profit orders can help.
Q: Do altcoins always follow Bitcoin?
A: Generally yes—especially during major cycle turns. Bitcoin often leads both upward and downward moves, with altcoins lagging by weeks or months.
Q: Can ETFs disrupt the traditional cycle?
A: Spot Bitcoin ETFs add continuous buying pressure, potentially smoothing volatility. However, they don’t eliminate supply shocks from halvings—so the core cycle dynamics remain intact.
Strategic Exit Planning Based on Cycle Insights
Two previously considered exit scenarios now align with historical patterns:
- Exit ~15 months post-halving (July 2025)
Matches past trends where peaks occurred 18–24 months after halvings—July 2025 falls within this window. - Exit ~336 days after surpassing $68,789 (BTC’s 2021 high)
Historically, new all-time highs precede peaks by about a year. If BTC breaks $70k in mid-2024, this would target late 2025—consistent with Scenario 1.
Both approaches are supported by cycle analysis and on-chain data. As we approach mid-2025, monitoring key indicators will be crucial for timing exits effectively.
Final Thoughts
The crypto 4-year cycle isn’t a crystal ball—but it’s one of the most reliable frameworks for navigating Bitcoin’s volatile landscape. By recognizing each phase’s characteristics and aligning strategies accordingly, investors can move from reactive to proactive decision-making.
Whether you're holding Bitcoin or exploring altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, understanding this rhythm offers a powerful edge. As we enter what could be the most mature bull run yet—shaped by ETFs, institutional adoption, and global macro trends—staying informed is more important than ever.
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