The Stellar (XLM) cryptocurrency has recently displayed promising signs of stabilization following a challenging June, with price action attempting to reclaim a crucial support zone. As of late June 2025, XLM is trading around $0.238 — down approximately 28% from its mid-May peak — after navigating a prolonged descending channel. Despite the bearish price trend and declining market capitalization throughout the first half of 2025, key on-chain metrics suggest growing confidence among investors and developers alike.
Notably, Total Value Locked (TVL) within the Stellar ecosystem has surged inversely to price movements, signaling strong underlying fundamentals. Derivatives data further reinforce this optimism, with XLM’s funding rate turning positive and weighted market sentiment shifting bullish. These developments point to accumulating strength beneath the surface, hinting at a potential reversal on the horizon.
Scopuly, a leading DeFi wallet built on the Stellar network, recently posted on X (formerly Twitter) that “the time for a breakout has arrived,” projecting a price target of $0.46. This bold claim is backed by emerging technical and on-chain indicators, which we’ll explore in detail below.
Rising TVL Signals Growing Confidence in Stellar
One of the most compelling signs of renewed interest in the Stellar ecosystem is the dramatic rise in Total Value Locked (TVL). According to DefiLlama, Stellar’s TVL reached $86.7 million — a staggering increase from its 2024 low of just $7.2 million. This represents nearly an 11x growth within just four months, highlighting a surge in user participation and capital inflow into decentralized finance applications on the network.
👉 Discover how blockchain ecosystems with rising TVL often precede major price rallies.
Even more telling is the fact that since hitting its 2025 low, TVL has nearly doubled. This growth occurs despite a declining XLM price and shrinking market cap, creating a classic divergence pattern often seen before significant bullish reversals. When fundamentals improve while price stagnates or drops, it typically indicates accumulation by informed investors.
This inverse relationship between price and TVL suggests that market participants are increasingly confident in Stellar’s long-term utility — particularly in cross-border payments, tokenized assets, and decentralized identity solutions.
Bullish Funding Rates and Sentiment Trends
Another strong indicator of shifting market psychology is the change in XLM’s funding rates. Data from CoinGlass shows that the Open Interest-weighted Funding Rate has turned positive — meaning long positions now outweigh short bets, and traders holding longs are paying shorts.
In derivatives markets:
- A positive funding rate typically reflects bullish sentiment, as more traders are betting on price increases.
- A negative rate indicates bearish dominance.
The fact that funding rates have flipped from negative to positive — and remained stable — increases the probability of short-term upward momentum. Historically, such shifts have preceded breakouts when combined with other technical confirmations.
Additionally, Santiment’s weighted sentiment analysis turned bullish as XLM found support near $0.225, a level identified using the "FR Volume Profile" tool. This tool highlights high-volume trading zones where institutional activity tends to concentrate. The shift in sentiment confirms that negative emotions have cooled while positive expectations are gaining traction among retail and algorithmic traders.
Increasing Network Activity Confirms Real-World Usage
Beyond financial metrics, real usage data paints an equally encouraging picture. Dune Analytics dashboards reveal a steady increase in active addresses across the Stellar network:
- Monthly Active Addresses (May 2025): 263.25K
- Recurring Users: 173.67K
- New Addresses: 89.59K
This month-over-month growth in user engagement suggests expanding adoption — not just speculative trading. More users interacting with dApps, sending transactions, or using Stellar-based wallets indicates organic demand rather than artificial pump-and-dump cycles.
Such sustained activity strengthens the argument that Stellar is undergoing a quiet renaissance, driven by improvements in scalability, partnerships with financial institutions, and growing interest in asset tokenization.
Can XLM Break Out of Its Bearish Structure?
For much of early 2025, XLM has been confined within a descending channel — a pattern that typically reflects persistent selling pressure and eroding investor confidence. However, recent price action shows XLM testing the upper boundary of this channel for nearly 45 consecutive days. This prolonged retest suggests strong buying interest at lower levels and could indicate the formation of a base ahead of a potential breakout.
A decisive close above the channel’s upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and likely trigger a wave of short-covering and momentum buying. In such a scenario, the first major resistance target lies near $0.40**, with further upside toward **$0.46 — aligning with Scopuly’s forecast.
Conversely, failure to hold current support near $0.225 could lead to renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing prices down to **$0.15**, a multi-year low that would test long-term holder resolve.
Technical analysts emphasize that volume confirmation will be critical. A breakout accompanied by rising trading volume would lend credibility to the move, while a low-volume fakeout could trap overeager bulls.
👉 Learn how to identify real breakouts from false signals using on-chain analytics.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Is Stellar (XLM) a good investment?
Yes, Stellar remains a compelling long-term investment due to its robust infrastructure for cross-border payments, growing DeFi integration, and increasing institutional interest in blockchain-based settlement systems.
What is the maximum XLM price forecast for 2025?
Based on current momentum and on-chain trends, XLM could reach up to $1.29 by the end of 2025 if broader market conditions improve and adoption accelerates.
Could XLM reach $6 by 2030?
Long-term models suggest that with widespread adoption of tokenized assets and global payment solutions, XLM may achieve a maximum price of $6.19 by 2030.
Why is TVL rising while XLM price falls?
This divergence often occurs during accumulation phases. Investors may be deploying capital into Stellar-based protocols without driving immediate price appreciation — a sign of foundational strength.
What triggers a breakout in XLM price?
Key triggers include sustained positive funding rates, rising active addresses, volume-supported moves above $0.25, and eventual closure above the descending channel resistance.
How does sentiment affect XLM’s price?
Market sentiment influences trader behavior. A shift from fear to optimism can spark FOMO (fear of missing out), accelerating buying pressure and catalyzing rallies.
👉 Monitor real-time XLM price movements and on-chain data to stay ahead of the next breakout.
With bullish on-chain signals mounting — including rising TVL, improving sentiment, growing user activity, and favorable funding dynamics — the stage may be set for XLM to break free from its bearish pattern. While short-term volatility remains likely, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors suggests that Stellar could be positioning for a significant move in the coming months.
For investors watching the space closely, now may be an opportune moment to assess entry points — especially if price holds above $0.225 and begins to build momentum toward $0.40 and beyond.