Ripple’s native cryptocurrency, XRP, has recently faced intensified selling pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions and shifting macroeconomic dynamics. After a brief rebound from weekend lows of $1.90, XRP stabilized around $2.14 at the time of writing—still struggling to regain bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the XRP/BTC trading pair has seen a steep decline, dropping nearly 42% from its January peak and currently trading near 0.00003415 BTC. Despite these bearish signals, technical patterns on the daily chart suggest a potential reversal could be on the horizon.
👉 Discover how market patterns could signal a major XRP surge in the coming weeks.
XRP/BTC Slides Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The XRP/BTC pair has entered a prolonged downtrend, recently sliding to 0.00001982 BTC—a seven-month low—reflecting weakening investor confidence in XRP relative to Bitcoin. This movement coincides with growing concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, as political commentary continues to influence market sentiment.
Recent remarks by former President Trump during a NATO summit criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell have amplified speculation about future monetary policy direction. While the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly on Thursday, investors have increasingly turned to established digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as hedges against uncertainty—leaving altcoins like XRP under pressure.
Technical indicators further confirm the bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP/BTC has dropped to 37, edging toward oversold territory. Additionally, a “death cross” formed on June 12 when the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 200-day EMA—a historically reliable signal of sustained downward momentum.
However, traders should not overlook a developing falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. This formation occurs when price action consolidates between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines. Typically seen as a bullish reversal pattern, it suggests that selling pressure is gradually diminishing.
Key characteristics of this pattern include declining volume and narrowing price ranges—both signs that bears are losing control and buyers may soon step in. A confirmed breakout above the upper trendline, especially accompanied by rising volume, could invalidate the current bearish trend and trigger a significant rally.
Historically, the measured move target of a falling wedge equals the height of the pattern at its widest point, projected upward from the breakout level. In this case, such a calculation points to a potential rise of nearly 29%, pushing XRP/BTC toward 0.00002560 BTC.
If realized, this move could reignite broader market interest in XRP—echoing past surges seen in November, December, and January when strong demand for cross-border payment tokens drove XRP prices up to $0.34.
Technical Outlook: Is an XRP Rebound Imminent?
On the 4-hour chart for XRP/USDT, recent price action shows increasing bearish dominance. After testing resistance near $2.22—the weekly high—XRP was rejected and declined toward support at $2.09. A sell signal confirmed by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reinforces this downward bias.
Specifically, the blue MACD line has dipped below the red signal line and continues moving toward zero, indicating weakening momentum and strengthening selling pressure. The RSI remains below the 50 midline, further confirming that bears are in control.
While a bounce from the $2.09 support level is possible, broader market sentiment will likely determine its sustainability. A decisive break below the psychological $2.00 level cannot be ruled out and would open the door for further downside.
Traders should watch key support zones closely:
- $1.90: Recently tested on Sunday and may offer temporary relief.
- $1.80: A strong horizontal support level from April’s decline.
- $1.60: A deeper retracement zone that could act as a long-term floor if selling intensifies.
A failure to hold these levels may extend losses and delay any meaningful recovery.
👉 Learn how technical formations like wedges can predict explosive price moves before they happen.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a falling wedge pattern?
A: A falling wedge is a bullish reversal chart pattern characterized by price movement between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines. It typically signals weakening bearish momentum and an upcoming upside breakout.
Q: Why is XRP/BTC more informative than XRP/USDT?
A: The XRP/BTC pair removes dollar-based volatility and shows XRP’s performance relative to Bitcoin—the market leader. It helps assess whether XRP is genuinely gaining strength or merely moving with broader dollar-driven crypto trends.
Q: What does a death cross mean for XRP?
A: A death cross occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA, signaling long-term bearish sentiment. While not always predictive of prolonged declines, it often marks increased selling pressure and loss of short-term momentum.
Q: Can XRP recover if macroeconomic conditions worsen?
A: While macro factors like Fed policy and geopolitical risks affect all risk assets, altcoins like XRP are especially vulnerable during risk-off periods. Recovery would likely require both improved global sentiment and strong on-chain or adoption catalysts.
Q: How reliable is the 29% upside target for XRP/BTC?
A: Measured move targets based on chart patterns provide probabilistic guidance rather than guarantees. However, when combined with volume confirmation and alignment with broader market trends, they offer actionable insight for traders.
Q: What should traders watch for confirmation of a breakout?
A: Traders should look for a close above the upper trendline of the wedge on higher-than-average volume. Additional confirmation comes from bullish divergences in RSI or MACD turning upward after the breakout.
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As XRP navigates current market headwinds, the confluence of technical structure and relative strength metrics offers cautious optimism. While near-term risks remain elevated due to macro uncertainty and weak volume, the presence of a falling wedge hints at pent-up buying interest.
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For traders and investors alike, monitoring volume shifts and key BTC-denominated levels will be crucial in determining whether this consolidation leads to another leg down—or a powerful reversal that re-energizes Ripple’s ecosystem narrative.