CryptoQuant Analyst Believes Bitcoin Bull Run Might Be Near an End

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The Bitcoin bull run that ignited in early 2023 may be entering its final phase, according to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant’s Korea Community Manager, Crypto Dan. With key on-chain metrics flashing cautionary signals, market observers are increasingly debating whether the rally is nearing its peak — potentially setting the stage for a major correction in 2025.

While Bitcoin continues to trade near $100,000, underlying data suggests investor behavior is aligning with historical patterns seen at the tail end of previous bull cycles. This article explores the technical and on-chain indicators pointing to a maturing market, expert predictions for price action ahead, and what investors should consider as volatility looms.

Signs the Bitcoin Bull Market Is Maturing

Crypto Dan’s assessment hinges on one critical metric: Bitcoin’s Realized Market Cap UTXO Age Bands. This data tracks how long specific Bitcoin holdings have remained unspent, offering insight into investor sentiment and market phase.

Currently, 36% of Bitcoin’s realized market cap consists of coins that have moved within the past 30 days. While this is lower than peaks observed during previous cycle tops — such as the 50%+ turnover seen in 2017 and 2021 — it still signals significant short-term activity. Historically, such levels precede market exhaustion.

“The long-term trend remains downward, which suggests that the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 2025, or at the latest by Q2 2025.”
— Crypto Dan, CryptoQuant

A rising volume of recently spent coins typically indicates profit-taking, speculative trading, or panic selling — all behaviors common near cycle highs. When large portions of dormant supply reactivate, it often marks a shift from accumulation to distribution.

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This doesn’t mean an immediate crash is inevitable. Instead, the market could experience a gradual overheating, where momentum builds slowly before triggering a sharp reversal. Such a scenario would mirror the 2021 cycle, where Bitcoin rose steadily past $60,000 before collapsing under leverage and sentiment shifts.

Market Structure and Technical Outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading at $99,234**, holding above critical short-term support. On the daily chart, it remains above the middle band of the **Keltner Channel** at **$97,026, which acts as immediate support. A break below this level could expose the lower band near $90,956, potentially accelerating downside momentum.

Resistance lies at the upper Keltner band, $103,096**. A sustained breakout above this threshold could reignite bullish sentiment and pave the way for a retest of Bitcoin’s December 2024 all-time high of **$108,000 — possibly opening a new price discovery phase beyond $110,000.

However, technical indicators suggest weak trend strength:

An ADX below 20 indicates a lack of strong directional momentum. For Bitcoin to confirm a breakout, the ADX must climb above 25, signaling increasing trend strength and trader conviction.

Volume remains another concern. Analysts note that BTC trading volume has not expanded sufficiently to justify a sustainable move above $105,000. Without broader participation and institutional inflows, any rally may lack staying power.

Expert Views: What Comes After the Peak?

While Crypto Dan focuses on on-chain data, other analysts are factoring in macroeconomic forces.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, warns that decisions by the Federal Reserve could disrupt Bitcoin’s trajectory. The upcoming FOMC meeting may bring changes in interest rate policy or quantitative tightening plans — both of which influence liquidity and risk appetite in financial markets.

“If the Fed stays hawkish, we could see risk assets like Bitcoin face headwinds,” Thielen noted. “Crypto markets thrive on loose monetary policy; any reversal could trigger a correction.”

Meanwhile, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, forecasts a short-term pullback to $89,000**, followed by a rebound toward **$125,000 later in the quarter. His outlook reflects a classic bull market pattern: consolidation after rapid gains, followed by renewed momentum.

This cyclical behavior has played out repeatedly in prior rallies. Investors who panic during corrections often miss subsequent upside — but those who enter too early risk significant drawdowns.

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Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment

Understanding the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle requires familiarity with several key terms:

These keywords reflect both technical and behavioral aspects of crypto investing. They also align with high-volume search queries as traders seek clarity amid uncertainty.

For example, searches for “Bitcoin price prediction 2025” have surged over the past six months, indicating strong public interest in long-term forecasts. Similarly, “on-chain analysis tools” and “how to spot bull market top” are trending among retail investors aiming to time their exits.

By integrating these concepts naturally into market discussions, this article supports both reader education and search engine visibility.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is Bitcoin really near the end of its bull run?
A: Based on on-chain data like UTXO age bands and realized cap trends, many analysts believe the current cycle is maturing. While no one can predict the exact top, signs suggest we are in the late stages — possibly peaking between Q1 and Q2 2025.

Q: What happens after the bull market ends?
A: Historically, bull runs are followed by bear markets lasting 12–24 months. Prices typically decline 50–80% from their peak before bottoming out and entering a new accumulation phase.

Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin now?
A: That depends on your investment strategy and risk tolerance. Some investors choose to take profits gradually as prices rise. Others hold long-term regardless of cycles. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.

Q: Can Bitcoin still reach $125,000?
A: Yes — several analysts project new all-time highs before the cycle ends. However, such moves may require increased liquidity and positive macro conditions. A short-term pullback could precede any final surge.

Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics like UTXO age bands?
A: These metrics have proven valuable in identifying accumulation and distribution phases. While not infallible, they offer deeper insight than price alone and are widely used by institutional traders.

Q: What tools can help me track these indicators?
A: Platforms like CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and OKX provide real-time on-chain dashboards, technical analysis tools, and sentiment indicators to help monitor market health.

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Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Next Phase

The evidence suggests the Bitcoin bull run is transitioning into its final act. Whether it ends with a dramatic crash or a slow deflation of momentum depends on investor behavior, macroeconomic conditions, and liquidity flows.

For now, caution is warranted — especially for leveraged positions or those heavily exposed to crypto assets. As Crypto Dan demonstrated by beginning to liquidate part of his portfolio, even bulls can be prudent.

The coming months will test both technical resilience and market psychology. Traders who understand cycle dynamics, use reliable data sources, and maintain disciplined strategies will be best positioned to navigate what comes next.

Regardless of short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s long-term adoption story remains intact — but timing matters just as much as conviction in volatile markets.