Bitcoin’s recent price volatility has reignited debate across the crypto community: has the flagship cryptocurrency truly entered a bear market? While headlines point to steep corrections and weakening momentum, a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Renowned on-chain analyst Ali Martinez has stepped into the conversation with a comprehensive assessment of Bitcoin’s current trajectory, blending technical indicators, on-chain behavior, and macro-level trends to evaluate whether this downturn signals long-term weakness—or a temporary pause before the next leg up.
Key Indicators Suggest Bearish Pressure Is Building
Martinez begins his analysis by examining the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, a critical metric that tracks the net movement of Bitcoin between spot and derivative exchanges. A surge in inflows to derivative platforms often precedes increased selling pressure, as traders prepare for short positions. According to Martinez, Bitcoin is currently in a "corrective phase," characterized by declining prices following a strong rally—exactly the pattern observed after BTC surged past $109,000 in late January.
That peak, coinciding with heightened market sentiment around geopolitical events, has since given way to a 23% correction. This pullback isn’t isolated—it’s supported by several key metrics pointing toward weakening momentum.
One of the most telling signs is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio, which has recently turned negative. Historically, a negative MVRV indicates that Bitcoin is trading below its realized value—the average price at which all existing coins were last moved. This often correlates with bearish phases, as holders are, on average, underwater.
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Martinez also references his proprietary Market Cycle Indicator, which currently aligns with early-stage bear market conditions. This model, which combines multiple layers of on-chain and market data, has accurately signaled past downturns, adding weight to the current caution.
Whale and Miner Behavior Adds to Selling Pressure
Beyond technical models, investor behavior offers crucial insights. On-chain data reveals that miners—typically long-term holders—have recently sold over $27 million worth of Bitcoin. This profit-taking often reflects operational needs or reduced confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Even more significant is the activity among Bitcoin whales, defined as large holders with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. Martinez highlights that these major players have liquidated more than $260 million in BTC over recent weeks. Such movements increase supply in the market and can amplify downward pressure during uncertain periods.
Additionally, new capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up dramatically. Monthly investment flows have plummeted from $135 billion in December 2024 to just $4 billion by mid-March 2025. This sharp decline suggests weakening demand and a lack of fresh buying power—key ingredients that can prolong bearish conditions.
Critical Support Levels Could Prevent Further Decline
Despite these bearish signals, Martinez emphasizes that Bitcoin may not be doomed to a prolonged downturn. Certain structural supports suggest a potential floor could form in the $66,000–$69,000 range.
Citing data from IntoTheBlock, he notes that approximately 750,000 investors purchased 313,000 BTC around the $69,000 mark. This concentration of buyers creates a psychological and technical support zone—historically, such levels tend to attract renewed buying interest when tested.
Further reinforcing this view is Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which identifies $69,354 as a zone of strong on-chain support. Coins purchased at or near this price are unlikely to be sold at a loss unless broader market sentiment severely deteriorates.
Martinez also points to two classic technical tools: the Mayer Multiple and Bitcoin’s position relative to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Both suggest $66,000 as a critical level. If BTC holds above this threshold, it could prevent a deeper correction and set the stage for recovery.
Liquidity Trends Hint at a Possible April Rebound
While current indicators lean bearish, Martinez doesn’t rule out a turnaround—especially as macroeconomic conditions evolve. He highlights global liquidity trends as a potential catalyst for recovery.
Historically, periods of rising liquidity—driven by central bank policies such as rate cuts or quantitative easing—have coincided with Bitcoin rallies. With inflation pressures easing and the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March 2025, markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in the year. April could mark the beginning of improved liquidity conditions, which may reignite investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
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Martinez outlines a bullish scenario: if Bitcoin can reclaim $93,700 as support, it could signal the resumption of an uptrend. From there, a move toward $111,000—the previous all-time high territory—becomes increasingly plausible.
This potential rebound gained early momentum when BTC surged 4% to $85,900—a 10-day high—following the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged. The market interpreted this as dovish, fueling speculation of future easing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What defines a Bitcoin bear market?
A: A bear market is typically marked by a price decline of 20% or more from recent highs, accompanied by weakening momentum, reduced trading volume, and negative investor sentiment. Technical indicators like MVRV and on-chain selling by whales often confirm the trend.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics like MVRV and Inter-Exchange Flow?
A: These metrics are highly regarded in crypto analysis. MVRV helps identify overbought or oversold conditions, while Inter-Exchange Flow reveals trader positioning. Used together, they provide early signals of market shifts.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover if whales keep selling?
A: Short-term selling by whales can increase volatility, but sustained recovery depends on broader demand. If institutional inflows and retail participation return—especially during periods of rising liquidity—price can rebound despite large-holder exits.
Q: Why is the $66,000–$69,000 range so important?
A: This zone represents a confluence of technical and on-chain support. It aligns with high realized value, significant historical buying activity, and key moving averages—making it a logical area for buyers to defend.
Q: What role does the Federal Reserve play in Bitcoin’s price?
A: Fed policy influences global liquidity. Rate cuts or dovish signals increase money supply, often benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, rate hikes tend to strengthen the dollar and suppress crypto prices.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: That depends on your investment strategy. From a technical standpoint, the $66,000–$69,000 range offers a historically strong entry point. However, waiting for confirmation of renewed momentum—such as sustained price above $93,700—may reduce downside risk.
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Conclusion: Caution Now, Opportunity Ahead?
While evidence suggests Bitcoin is navigating early bear market conditions, the full picture remains uncertain. Persistent selling by miners and whales, declining inflows, and negative MVRV all point to near-term weakness. Yet strong support levels, combined with improving macroeconomic prospects, leave room for recovery.
The coming weeks—particularly through April—could be decisive. If liquidity improves and BTC holds key supports, the foundation may be laid for another upward cycle. For investors, this moment calls for vigilance, patience, and a close eye on both on-chain data and central bank policy.
Bitcoin’s journey has always been defined by cycles of fear and recovery. Today’s dip may be just another chapter in that enduring story.