Ethereum (ETH) may be retracing Bitcoin’s historic 2018–2021 market cycle, despite facing unprecedented selling pressure, according to multiple cryptocurrency analysts. While investor sentiment remains divided, technical patterns and historical parallels suggest a pivotal moment is approaching—one that could determine ETH’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
Mirroring Bitcoin’s Historical Price Cycle
Cryptocurrency analyst The Cryptagon recently highlighted a compelling resemblance between Ethereum’s current price behavior and Bitcoin’s path during its last major bull run. In a post on TradingView, The Cryptagon noted that Ethereum has been under consistent downward pressure since early December, recently testing a key 12-month support level.
Despite the sustained sell-off, he argues that broader market conditions do not yet justify a fully bearish stance on ETH. Drawing from Bitcoin’s past performance, he points to a critical turning point in BTC’s 2018–2019 cycle: a strong rebound from a long-term support zone eventually triggered a breakout that propelled Bitcoin to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level—a significant milestone in technical analysis.
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If Ethereum follows a similar trajectory, The Cryptagon forecasts a potential price target of $8,000 in this market cycle—provided the current support holds and momentum begins to shift.
This bullish outlook hinges on the idea that market cycles tend to repeat, driven by investor psychology, macroeconomic factors, and on-chain fundamentals. Ethereum, as the leading smart contract platform, remains central to decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and layer-2 scaling innovations—all of which could fuel renewed demand if market confidence returns.
Mounting Selling Pressure Challenges Recovery
However, the optimistic scenario faces strong headwinds. Data from Cryptoquant reveals record-level selling activity over the past three months. Ki Young Ju, founder of Cryptoquant, shared insights on social platform X indicating that Ethereum holders have been actively offloading their holdings, contributing to underperformance relative to other major altcoins.
While assets like XRP and Solana (SOL) have either approached or surpassed previous all-time highs, Ethereum continues to trade significantly below its peak of over $4,800 reached in 2021. This underperformance raises concerns about investor confidence and short-term momentum.
Several factors may explain the divergence:
- Regulatory uncertainty surrounding Ethereum’s status as a security
- Increased competition from high-performance blockchains
- Lower DeFi yields reducing staking incentives
- Market rotation into newer narratives like meme coins and AI-driven tokens
Despite these challenges, Ethereum maintains a dominant position in total value locked (TVL) across DeFi protocols and leads in developer activity—key indicators of long-term network strength.
The $1,887 Make-or-Break Support Zone
One of the most closely watched technical levels is $1,887, identified by analyst Ali Martinez as a crucial support threshold. On-chain data shows that approximately 1.63 million ETH were accumulated around this price range. A sustained hold above this level could signal strong buying interest and pave the way for a recovery.
Conversely, a decisive break below $1,887 might trigger a wave of stop-loss liquidations and panic selling, as investors rush to exit positions to limit losses. Martinez has previously warned of a potential drop to **$800**, which would represent a roughly 70% decline from recent highs.
His bearish projection is based on the breakdown of a long-standing upward trendline near $4,000, which once acted as dynamic support. Its failure suggests deeper corrections could unfold if macro conditions worsen or negative sentiment intensifies.
Current Market Snapshot
At the time of writing, Ethereum trades near **$1,893**, according to CoinMarketCap—just above the critical $1,887 support. The slight 1% gain over the past 24 hours offers a glimmer of stability, but volatility remains high.
Market participants are now watching for confirmation signals:
- Will buying pressure increase at support?
- Can ETH reclaim key moving averages?
- Is on-chain accumulation resuming?
These factors will help determine whether Ethereum can reassert bullish momentum or succumbs to prolonged bearish pressure.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is $1,887 such an important level for Ethereum?
A: This price zone represents a major accumulation area where about 1.63 million ETH were purchased. A break below could trigger widespread selling, while holding it may confirm buyer resilience.
Q: Can Ethereum really reach $8,000 like some analysts predict?
A: While ambitious, a move to $8,000 is plausible if ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s prior cycle and broader market conditions improve. Institutional adoption and ETF approvals could accelerate such a rally.
Q: What caused the recent surge in Ethereum selling pressure?
A: Factors include profit-taking after price rallies, regulatory concerns, competition from other blockchains, and shifting investor interest toward emerging crypto sectors.
Q: How does Ethereum’s performance compare to other altcoins?
A: Unlike XRP or Solana, which have neared or exceeded prior highs, Ethereum has lagged—partly due to its larger market cap and slower narrative momentum despite strong fundamentals.
Q: What indicators should I watch to confirm a reversal?
A: Monitor on-chain accumulation trends, exchange outflows, funding rates, and technical indicators like RSI and MACD for early signs of bullish reversal.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?
A: With ETH near critical support, risk-tolerant investors may see value—but only after thorough research and proper risk management. Waiting for confirmation of trend reversal reduces downside exposure.
Looking Ahead: A Defining Period for Ethereum
The coming weeks will likely prove decisive for Ethereum’s market direction. If it successfully defends the $1,887 support and begins forming higher lows, it could reignite bullish momentum aligned with Bitcoin’s historical cycle.
On the other hand, failure to stabilize may open the door to deeper corrections—potentially validating more pessimistic forecasts.
Regardless of short-term volatility, Ethereum’s foundational role in Web3 innovation remains intact. Upgrades like Dencun and ongoing layer-2 expansion continue to enhance scalability and reduce fees, laying the groundwork for future growth.
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For traders and long-term holders alike, patience and data-driven decision-making will be essential during this critical juncture. Whether ETH breaks out or breaks down, one thing is clear: the market is watching closely.