Will Bitcoin Drop Even Lower? Here’s What Experts Predict

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Bitcoin has entered a period of intense volatility, sparking widespread concern among investors and traders. After trading above $96,000 earlier this week, the leading cryptocurrency has now dipped below $80,000—the first time since November 11. This sharp drop represents an 18% decline in just a few days and marks a 27% pullback from its all-time high of $109,588 reached on January 20. As the market grapples with this correction, many are asking: How low can Bitcoin go?

This article explores expert insights, technical indicators, and macro-level factors shaping Bitcoin’s current trajectory. We’ll examine key support levels, market sentiment, and potential catalysts that could reverse the downtrend—offering a comprehensive view for both cautious holders and opportunistic traders.

Key Factors Driving the Bitcoin Correction

Several converging forces are contributing to Bitcoin’s recent slump. First, the reintroduction of Trump-era tariffs has reignited fears of global trade tensions, impacting risk appetite across financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, often seen as high-beta assets, are particularly sensitive to shifts in macroeconomic sentiment.

Second, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows in recent days. These outflows signal weakening institutional demand and may reflect profit-taking after the bull run earlier in the year. Reduced buying pressure from ETFs can create a vacuum in the market, accelerating downward momentum.

Third, the derivatives market has experienced massive liquidations, particularly in futures contracts. When leveraged positions are forcibly closed due to price drops, it triggers cascading sell-offs that amplify volatility. According to data analytics platforms, billions in long positions were liquidated during the latest leg down.

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Despite these headwinds, some analysts argue that such conditions often lay the foundation for the next major upward move—either through capitulation or consolidation.

Technical Outlook: Are Bulls Losing Control?

Market technicians are closely monitoring several key indicators to assess whether Bitcoin is nearing a bottom—or if further downside lies ahead.

Bullish Divergence Building on Multiple Timeframes

Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” has identified a bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart. This pattern occurs when price makes lower lows while momentum indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) make higher lows—suggesting weakening selling pressure.

“This could fail, obviously, but RSI is holding up well. If you’ve been following me for years, this is my favorite signal when confirmed,” Melker noted on X.

While not a guarantee of reversal, sustained bullish divergence across multiple timeframes increases the odds of a meaningful bounce—especially if accompanied by rising volume.

Potential Extended Correction Pattern

Tony “The Bull” Severino, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), suggests Bitcoin may be tracing out a complex corrective wave similar to patterns seen in 2021 and 2022. He warns of a possible “fifth of a fifth” extension—a technical scenario where corrections stretch deeper than expected.

Severino points to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $75,000 as a likely target if this fractal plays out. He also highlights the monthly **Parabolic SAR**, currently at $75,742, as a critical threshold. A breach below this level could open the door to further downside.

“Do not want to see BTC tag the monthly Parabolic SAR,” Severino cautioned.

He expects this level to rise slightly by month-end, potentially shifting key support into the low $80,000s.

Weekly Kijun Support at $74,000

Trader Josh Olszewicz uses the Ichimoku Cloud system to identify structural support levels. He emphasizes the importance of the weekly kijun-sen, which sits near $74,000. The last time Bitcoin touched this level was during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024—a period marked by extreme cross-market volatility.

A retest of this zone could serve as a strong magnet for price, especially if institutional or algorithmic buyers step in.

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Market Sentiment and Liquidity Concerns

The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 16—classified as “Extreme Fear.” While extreme fear often precedes bottoms, it can also persist during prolonged corrections.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, underscores the role of liquidity in determining Bitcoin’s next move. He notes that spot trading volume was robust near $100,000 but has since dried up—a classic sign of a distribution phase.

“Prices drop when new liquidity dries up,” Ju explains.

He anticipates an extended consolidation range between $75,000 and $100,000, mirroring Bitcoin’s price action in early 2024. According to Ju, a fresh catalyst—such as regulatory clarity or macroeconomic shifts—will be needed to attract new capital and reignite the uptrend.

Hidden Buying Pressure: $1.8 Billion in Bids on Binance

One of the most intriguing developments comes from on-chain data. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades reported the appearance of approximately **$1.8 billion in buy orders** on Binance futures, clustered between $70,000 and $79,000.

While such orders can be canceled at any time, their sheer size suggests strong interest at these levels. Historically, large resting bids have acted as magnets for price, often triggering sharp reversals once tested.

Additionally, Daan notes that Bitcoin’s Daily RSI dropped to 20, a level associated with deep oversold conditions. The last time this occurred was during the aftermath of the FTX collapse in late 2022—a bear market bottom.

“Short term this means little but it should start peaking your interest,” he said.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is Bitcoin likely to fall below $75,000?
A: Some analysts project a test of the $75,000–$74,000 range based on Fibonacci retracements and Ichimoku support levels. However, large buy orders on Binance suggest strong demand near $70,000 could prevent a deeper collapse.

Q: What would trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
A: A reversal could be sparked by renewed institutional inflows, stabilization in ETF flows, or macroeconomic developments that boost risk appetite—such as rate cut expectations or regulatory progress.

Q: How long might this correction last?
A: Experts suggest an extended consolidation phase lasting weeks or even months is possible, similar to early 2024. The duration depends on when new liquidity enters the market.

Q: Should I buy Bitcoin now or wait?
A: This depends on your risk tolerance and investment horizon. Technical signals like bullish divergence and extreme fear may favor long-term accumulation, but short-term volatility remains high.

Q: What is the significance of the Parabolic SAR level?
A: The monthly Parabolic SAR acts as a dynamic support/resistance indicator. A break below $75,742 could signal a deeper correction, while holding above it increases chances of recovery.

Q: Can ETF outflows reverse soon?
A: Yes. ETF flows tend to be cyclical and often turn positive after sharp corrections as investors re-enter at lower prices.

Core Keywords

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $78,856. While uncertainty remains high, the confluence of oversold conditions, major support levels, and hidden buying interest suggests the current downturn may be setting up for a pivotal market turn.

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