The cryptocurrency market has entered a new phase of speculation and excitement — but this time, something feels different. While prices are climbing and sentiment is turning bullish, the gains appear to be concentrated almost entirely in Bitcoin (BTC). Other altcoins, despite strong narratives and technological promise, have largely remained flat or underperformed. This raises a critical question: Are we actually in a bull market — or just witnessing a Bitcoin-dominated rally?
To unpack this phenomenon, we turn to insights from Alvin, co-founder of DailyCrypto Research and co-creator of the Crypto Read newsletter, who recently shared his views at the MaiCoin Academy lecture series in Taipei. His talk, titled "Will There Be a Bull Market in 2025? Why We’re Facing a BTC-Only Rally," offered a clear-eyed analysis of current market dynamics, on-chain trends, and what investors should watch for in the months ahead.
The Strangest Bull Market for Retail Investors
One of the most striking points Alvin made was that this may be the most uncomfortable bull market for retail investors yet. Despite BTC’s price surge — breaking past key resistance levels and drawing widespread media attention — many small investors aren’t feeling the gains.
Why?
Because unlike previous cycles (such as 2017 or 2021), where altcoins exploded in value shortly after Bitcoin’s initial run-up, this time the rotation into alts hasn’t happened — at least not yet.
Retail traders who rotated into meme coins, AI tokens, or DeFi projects early are still waiting for their bags to green. Meanwhile, institutional capital continues to flow heavily into Bitcoin through ETFs, futures, and balance-sheet accumulation.
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This divergence has created a sense of FOMO mixed with frustration — a market where only those fully committed to BTC are seeing real returns.
Three Key Factors That Define Market Direction
To understand whether we’re truly in a broad bull market — or just a Bitcoin bubble — Alvin emphasized analyzing three core elements:
- Market Structure
Are new investors entering the ecosystem? Is liquidity improving across exchanges? The launch of U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally changed market structure by allowing traditional finance (TradFi) players to gain exposure without holding private keys. This has increased institutional participation but also centralized price influence. - Capital Flow
Where is the money going? On-chain data shows that large wallets (often dubbed “whales”) are accumulating BTC aggressively. In contrast, altcoin trading volumes remain subdued. Stablecoin supply growth — a proxy for incoming fiat liquidity — has been moderate, suggesting limited new capital entering crypto overall. - Narrative Momentum
What stories are driving interest? In past cycles, narratives like ICOs (2017), DeFi (2020), and NFTs/metaverse (2021) pulled investors into diverse projects. Today, the dominant narrative remains Bitcoin as digital gold, amplified by macro concerns like inflation, geopolitical instability, and central bank monetary policy.
Without a strong alternative narrative capturing mass attention, altcoins struggle to gain traction.
Understanding On-Chain Economics
Alvin stressed that technical charts alone aren’t enough. To truly gauge market health, investors must dive into on-chain metrics:
- Exchange Netflow: A sustained net outflow of BTC from exchanges suggests long-term holding sentiment.
- HODL Waves: Increasing percentages of supply held for over 1–2 years indicate growing confidence.
- Realized Cap vs. Market Cap (MVRV Ratio): When market cap significantly exceeds realized cap, it may signal overvaluation.
- Active Addresses & Transaction Volume: These show actual network usage — not just speculation.
Currently, BTC’s on-chain fundamentals remain strong. However, similar strength is not visible across most altcoin networks, which helps explain their lagging performance.
Promising Narratives Beyond Bitcoin
While Bitcoin dominates headlines, Alvin highlighted two emerging narratives he believes could ignite the next wave of altcoin growth:
1. AI Agents in Web3
The convergence of artificial intelligence and decentralized protocols is creating new opportunities. Imagine AI agents operating autonomously on blockchains — executing trades, managing wallets, or negotiating smart contracts without human intervention. Projects integrating AI with verifiable on-chain actions could see major adoption if they solve real-world inefficiencies.
2. DeFi’s Next Evolution
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) never truly died — it evolved. After the turbulence of 2022–2023, protocols have become more resilient, compliant, and user-friendly. Innovations like intent-based architectures, modular blockchains, and cross-chain interoperability are laying the groundwork for DeFi 3.0 — a phase focused on sustainability, yield efficiency, and real-world asset (RWA) integration.
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These narratives won’t replace Bitcoin’s dominance overnight — but they could provide the spark needed for a broader market rally.
How to Navigate the Rest of 2025
So what should investors do?
Alvin’s advice boils down to three principles:
- Stay Informed, Not Reactive
Avoid chasing pumps based on social media hype. Instead, follow trusted sources that analyze data, not just sentiment. - Diversify Strategically
While BTC should remain a core holding, allocating small portions to high-conviction narratives (like AI + crypto or DeFi innovation) can capture asymmetric upside. - Prepare for Volatility
Even within a bull trend, sharp corrections occur. Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and set clear entry/exit rules.
He also reminded the audience that bull markets don’t end overnight — they typically go through phases: accumulation, markup, euphoria, and distribution. We may still be in the early stages of markup, especially if macro conditions remain favorable.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin now?
A: It depends on your time horizon. While BTC may see short-term pullbacks after rapid rallies, its long-term outlook remains positive due to scarcity (halving cycles), increasing adoption, and macro tailwinds.
Q: Why aren’t altcoins rising even though Bitcoin is up?
A: Capital is prioritizing safety and liquidity. With uncertainty around regulations and global economies, investors favor Bitcoin as the most established crypto asset. Altcoins often rally later in the cycle when risk appetite increases.
Q: What triggers the “altseason”?
A: Historically, altseason begins when BTC’s dominance stops rising and starts falling — indicating money rotation into other assets. Increased stablecoin supply and rising DeFi TVL are early warning signs.
Q: Should I sell BTC to buy alts now?
A: Not necessarily. A better strategy is to let BTC gains compound while gradually allocating profits into promising alt projects — reducing risk while maintaining exposure.
Q: Can AI-related crypto projects really deliver value?
A: Some can — especially those solving verifiable problems like decentralized inference layers or AI model provenance. But many are speculative. Focus on teams with technical depth and real product traction.
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As the 2025 market unfolds, one thing is clear: Bitcoin is setting the pace. But history suggests that no bull run ends with BTC alone. Whether driven by AI breakthroughs, DeFi innovation, or an unexpected black swan event, the next chapter of crypto growth will likely bring broader participation.
Until then, patience, research, and disciplined strategy will separate winners from bystanders.