Altcoin Season Unlikely Before 2025, Says Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen

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The cryptocurrency market is once again at a pivotal juncture as investors await key macroeconomic data — particularly Friday’s U.S. employment report — to gauge the next phase of market momentum. Amid rising uncertainty, prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has issued a cautious outlook on the prospects of an imminent altcoin season, suggesting that such a rally may not occur until 2025.

Cowen’s analysis centers around Bitcoin’s growing dominance, which recently climbed to 60% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. This surge in dominance typically signals a risk-off environment for altcoins, with capital flowing into Bitcoin as a relative safe haven during volatile or uncertain periods.

Bitcoin’s Dominance and Market Cycles

Historically, altcoin seasons have followed strong Bitcoin rallies, not preceded them. According to Cowen, the current market structure reflects a classic accumulation and consolidation phase, where Bitcoin outperforms while altcoins stagnate or decline in value relative to BTC.

“Altcoins have been steadily losing ground to Bitcoin, and I believe altcoins won’t have a sustained season until 2025,” Cowen stated in his latest YouTube video. “Historically, alt seasons follow a strong Bitcoin rally, so unless Bitcoin experiences a parabolic run, we might not see an alt season.”

This observation aligns with long-term crypto market cycles, especially in the aftermath of Bitcoin’s halving events. During these phases, investor focus shifts heavily toward Bitcoin as the foundational asset, delaying broader speculative interest in alternative cryptocurrencies.

👉 Discover how market cycles influence crypto investments and when to expect the next big move.

The $70,000 Threshold: A Make-or-Break Level for Bitcoin

A critical technical level in Cowen’s analysis is $70,000 on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. If Bitcoin can maintain a weekly close above this threshold, it could signal strong institutional buying and renewed bullish momentum — potentially paving the way for future altcoin strength.

However, failure to hold above $70,000 may trigger a shift toward what Cowen describes as the “monetary policy view” — a scenario where macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and liquidity conditions dominate market sentiment. In such an environment, both Bitcoin and altcoins could face downward pressure due to tighter financial conditions.

This makes the upcoming labor market data especially significant. Strong employment numbers could delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reducing liquidity optimism and weighing on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Why Altcoins Are Struggling Against Bitcoin

One of the clearest indicators of altcoin weakness is their performance in BTC terms. Many major altcoin pairs — such as ETH/BTC, SOL/BTC, and ADA/BTC — have reached multi-month or even multi-year lows.

Even if some altcoins show nominal gains in U.S. dollar terms, their depreciation against Bitcoin reveals underlying capital outflows from the broader crypto ecosystem into Bitcoin itself.

Cowen emphasizes that this trend is normal within the crypto cycle:

Until Bitcoin completes a significant upward leg and traders begin securing profits, there is little reason to expect broad-based strength across the altcoin market.

👉 Learn how to track BTC-denominated altcoin trends and spot early signs of rotation.

Historical Precedents: Lessons from Past Cycles

Looking back at previous market cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), each major altcoin season occurred after Bitcoin had already surged by 2x to 3x from its halving price. These rallies were often triggered by:

In contrast, the current environment lacks explosive momentum. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought institutional legitimacy, they’ve also contributed to a more measured, less speculative market tone.

Moreover, regulatory scrutiny on major altcoins — including Ethereum — has created uncertainty that dampens investor enthusiasm compared to earlier cycles.

What Could Trigger an Altcoin Comeback?

For an altcoin season to begin, several conditions must align:

  1. Bitcoin must enter a parabolic phase, drawing widespread media attention and FOMO (fear of missing out).
  2. Traders must take profits from Bitcoin, reallocating capital into higher-risk digital assets.
  3. A compelling narrative must emerge, whether it’s AI-integrated blockchains, real-world asset tokenization, or scalable Layer 2 ecosystems.
  4. Macro liquidity must improve, ideally through Fed rate cuts or increased fiscal spending.

Until these factors converge, most altcoins will likely remain in a consolidation or underperformance phase.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is an altcoin season?
A: An altcoin season refers to a period when alternative cryptocurrencies (like Ethereum, Solana, Cardano) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth. It typically follows a strong Bitcoin rally and is driven by investor rotation into higher-risk assets.

Q: Why does Bitcoin dominance matter for altcoins?
A: When Bitcoin’s market share rises — currently near 60% — it indicates that capital is flowing into BTC rather than other cryptos. High dominance usually suppresses altcoin performance until Bitcoin's momentum slows and profits are taken.

Q: Can altcoins rise while Bitcoin is still going up?
A: Yes, but only selectively. Broad-based altcoin strength usually occurs after Bitcoin has made substantial gains. Early movers may gain traction due to project-specific news, but sustained sector-wide rallies are rare without prior BTC leadership.

Q: Is 2024 too early for an altcoin season?
A: Based on historical patterns and current market dynamics, most analysts — including Benjamin Cowen — believe 2024 is premature. A more likely window would be late 2024 to 2025, assuming Bitcoin completes its primary rally first.

Q: What should investors do during low-altcoin seasons?
A: Focus on accumulating high-conviction projects during downturns. Monitor BTC/altcoin ratios for early reversal signals. Consider dollar-cost averaging into diversified crypto portfolios while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin as the market leader.

Q: How does the U.S. jobs report affect crypto markets?
A: The employment data influences expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Strong job numbers may delay rate cuts, tightening liquidity and pressuring risk assets like crypto. Conversely, weak data can boost hopes for easing, supporting higher prices.

👉 Stay ahead of market-moving events with real-time data and expert insights.

Final Outlook: Patience Required for Altcoin Investors

Benjamin Cowen’s forecast underscores a critical truth: successful crypto investing requires patience and timing. While excitement around new technologies and narratives continues to grow, market structure remains firmly in favor of Bitcoin first, then altcoins later.

With dominance near 60%, technical resistance at $70,000, and macro risks lingering, the path forward suggests that any meaningful altcoin resurgence is likely months away — possibly not until 2025.

For traders and long-term holders alike, understanding these cycles isn't just informative — it's essential for strategic positioning. Watching Bitcoin’s trajectory closely over the coming weeks will provide vital clues about whether we're still in the early innings of this bull run or approaching its climax.

As always, staying informed, managing risk, and avoiding emotional decisions are key to navigating this dynamic market successfully.