The cryptocurrency market is showing clear signs of回暖, with Bitcoin breaking above $65,000 and stablecoin issuance surging—signals that have sparked renewed optimism among institutional investors. As global monetary policies shift toward easing, liquidity is expanding, and market sentiment is turning increasingly bullish. This article synthesizes recent institutional perspectives from July to September 2025, offering a comprehensive view of the forces shaping the current market cycle.
Institutional Bullish Sentiment Driven by Macro Trends
Arthur Hayes: Global Rate Cuts to Fuel Crypto Gains
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, highlights a pivotal macro shift: central banks worldwide are entering a coordinated easing phase. He argues that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates amid economic volatility, likely pushing interest rates close to zero. This accommodative stance stimulates bank lending and government borrowing, boosting liquidity across financial markets.
A weaker U.S. dollar—expected as a result of lower rates—creates favorable conditions for other economies. Notably, China can maintain yuan stability while expanding credit, having already initiated its own rate cuts. With Europe and Japan following similar paths, Hayes sees a global trend of lowering the cost of money. For crypto investors, this environment supports long-term appreciation in fiat-denominated value.
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10x Research: Bitcoin on Track to Hit $70,000 Amid Liquidity Surge
10x Research forecasts Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in the near term, driven by a significant inflow of liquidity via stablecoins. The firm notes that stablecoin issuance is outpacing even Bitcoin ETF flows, with nearly $10 billion expected to enter the ecosystem in coming weeks. Circle’s USDC has seen a 40% increase in inflows, indicating strong institutional participation likely tied to DeFi resurgence.
Year-to-date, stablecoin inflows total $35 billion, bringing total circulation to $160 billion. After the July FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields dropped below 4%, sparking renewed activity in decentralized finance. Aave’s monthly protocol fees spiked to $43 million in August, reflecting growing on-chain demand.
With BTC surpassing $65,000, 10x Research believes a breakout to new highs is imminent. Founder Markus Thielen emphasizes that rising stablecoin minting signals strong underlying demand—a precursor to widespread FOMO (fear of missing out) in Q4 2025.
CryptoQuant: Rising Funding Rates Signal Trader Optimism
Julio Moreno, research head at CryptoQuant, observes a turning point in futures market sentiment. The 30-day moving average of funding rates has turned positive after an extended decline, indicating growing bullishness among traders.
Data from Coinglass shows Ethereum’s weighted funding rate has remained positive since the Fed’s September 18 rate cut, currently at 0.0089%. Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s price rally to $65,000 has been supported by strong demand on U.S. exchanges, with Coinbase reporting a two-week high in BTC premium.
This shift suggests that leveraged traders are increasingly confident in sustained upside momentum.
MN Trading: ETF Flows and Asian Momentum to Drive Next Leg
Michael van de Poppe of MN Trading remains bullish despite acknowledging over 50% drawdowns in his altcoin portfolio. “Yes, I’m down more than 50%,” he admits, “but if my thesis holds over 12–18 months, I expect at least a 10x return.”
He points to consistent inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs as structural support for both assets. These instruments serve as effective hedges against potential U.S. dollar weakness. Additionally, he sees Asia—particularly China—as a key catalyst for the next phase of growth, given its increasing policy support for blockchain innovation.
Matrixport: October Could Spark Major Bitcoin Rally
Matrixport predicts a significant Bitcoin price rebound by early October—a historically strong period based on decade-long patterns. Despite trading sideways since March 2025’s all-time high, BTC has delivered a year-to-date return of +49%, closely matching historical averages.
The firm notes a slight rebound in Ethereum gas fees, signaling the end of summer stagnation. Post-Fed meeting data shows increased network activity on Ethereum, suggesting renewed on-chain engagement even amid negative headlines.
Crucially, Bitcoin’s funding rate remains near zero despite recent gains—indicating the rally is not driven by excessive leverage. Instead, spot market buying appears dominant, reflecting strategic, long-term accumulation rather than speculative futures activity. This healthy dynamic reduces risk of a sharp correction and supports further upside.
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QCP Capital: Global Liquidity Wave to Lift Crypto Prices
QCP Capital emphasizes that central bank easing cycles are now underway globally. While BTC oscillated between $62,000 and $64,000 amid limited U.S. macro catalysts, key developments—including GDP data and Fed Chair Powell’s speeches—are likely to shape near-term direction.
Notably, U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris reiterated her support for crypto, pledging to make America a leader in AI, quantum computing, and blockchain. With both major candidates backing digital assets, regulatory clarity seems more achievable regardless of election outcomes.
QCP also highlights strong risk appetite across markets: Bitcoin posted its best September ever with over 7% gains; the S&P 500 rose 5.1% in Q3—the best since 1997; and China’s CSI 300 jumped 9% after a major real estate stimulus package. In this environment, Bitcoin is well-positioned to gain during potential equity market pullbacks.
Bearish Views: Caution Amid Liquidity Concerns
BitMEX Chief Growth Officer: RRP Data Signals Tightening Liquidity
Raphael Polansky of BitMEX cautions that despite the rally, the Reverse Repo (RRP) facility shows ongoing liquidity tightening this month. Historically inversely correlated with Bitcoin performance, high RRP levels suggest less cash flowing into risk assets—potentially bearish for crypto.
While markets celebrate short-term gains, Polansky urges attention to this under-the-radar metric as a warning sign.
Santiment: Social Sentiment Not Yet Aligned With New ATHs
On-chain analytics firm Santiment warns that social media sentiment may not support an immediate breakout to new highs. Currently, bearish-to-bullish post ratio stands at 1:1.8—still skewed toward optimism.
However, historically, markets tend to move opposite to crowd expectations. Santiment suggests investors may need to temper their outlook before a sustainable new high emerges.
Neutral Perspectives: Support Levels and Range-Bound Outlook
CryptoQuant: $63K as Key Support Amid ETF-Driven Accumulation
CryptoQuant reports that BTC has risen over 23% in three weeks—from $52,500 to above $65,000—largely due to demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Short-term holders (those who moved BTC within the last 155 days) now hold at an average cost of $63,000, which is expected to act as strong support.
However, futures market overheating is evident: open interest exceeds $19.1 billion—the seventh time since March 2024 above $18 billion. Past occurrences were followed by price corrections.
Additionally, ETF holdings are increasingly held long-term—a pattern often seen late in bull runs—suggesting caution despite bullish momentum.
Bitfinex: BTC Likely to Trade Sideways Near Term
Bitfinex analysts believe ETF inflows will continue supporting BTC prices even if spot demand slows. However, transaction volume growth plateaus around $63,500, indicating resistance at current levels.
As such, they expect Bitcoin to consolidate in a trading range in the near term.
Trader Eugene Ng: Taking Profits at Key Resistance Zones
Experienced trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio has reduced positions despite widespread FOMO. He views the $65,000–$68,000 range as a logical profit-taking zone for early BTC investors.
“I won’t add exposure here,” he stated on social media. “$70,000 is my upper boundary for now.” His disciplined approach underscores the importance of sticking to trading plans amid emotional market swings.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why are institutions so bullish on Bitcoin in 2025?
A: Institutions cite macro tailwinds—especially global rate cuts and rising liquidity—as primary drivers. Strong ETF inflows and stablecoin growth further validate long-term confidence.
Q: Is the current rally sustainable?
A: Evidence suggests yes—particularly because spot demand dominates over leveraged futures trading. Low funding rates indicate markets aren’t overheated.
Q: Could Bitcoin really hit $70,000?
A: Multiple firms including 10x Research and QCP Capital project this level is achievable by late 2025, especially if Fed easing continues and ETF flows remain strong.
Q: What risks should investors watch for?
A: Rising RRP balances and elevated futures open interest signal potential downside risks. Social sentiment extremes may also precede pullbacks.
Q: Are altcoins worth investing in now?
A: Some analysts like van de Poppe believe in their long-term potential despite current drawdowns. However, diversification and risk management are essential.
Q: When might the next major move happen?
A: Historical patterns suggest October could bring strong momentum—a window many are watching closely.